Detroit Red Wings at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatGoals2
- Patrick KaneAssists2
- Alex DeBrincatPoints3
Flames- Matt CoronatoGoals1
- Joel FarabeePoints1
Scoring summary
- P314:40MacKenzie Weegar Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (15), Nazem Kadri (22)4–3
- P39:07Matt Coronato Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (21)4–2
- P38:02Joel Farabee Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–1
- P29:09Dylan Larkin Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (23)4–0
- P27:41Alex DeBrincat Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (12)3–0
- P14:33Axel Sandin-Pellikka Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (18), Patrick Kane (16)2–0
- P11:02Alex DeBrincat Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (15), Andrew Copp (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:02Alex DeBrincat Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (15), Andrew Copp (11)DET 1 – 0 CGY · DET 51% → 65% +14DET 51% → 65%+14 pts
- P14:33Axel Sandin-Pellikka Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (18), Patrick Kane (16)DET 2 – 0 CGY · DET 66% → 78% +13DET 66% → 78%+13 pts
- P27:41Alex DeBrincat Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (12)DET 3 – 0 CGY · DET 84% → 93% +9DET 84% → 93%+9 pts
- P29:09Dylan Larkin Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (23)DET 4 – 0 CGY · DET 94% → 98% +4DET 94% → 98%+4 pts
- P314:40MacKenzie Weegar Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (15), Nazem Kadri (22)DET 4 – 3 CGY · CGY <1% → 11% +10CGY <1% → 11%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DET 51%
- ML DET -115 / CGY -105
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- DET: Elo 46.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -104
- CGY +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.3 – 3.2 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −6 | DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · CGY: Devin Cooley: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +24 Elo | CGY 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 51.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.530th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.014th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.426th of 32 |
| 8th of 3252.3% | Shot share | 50.5%14th of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.2% | Save percentage | 90.4%12th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 14th of 327–7 | Road vs home | 7–613th of 32 |
| 30th of 321492 | Opponent Elo | 149624th of 32 |
| 18th of 321491 | Elo rating | 148224th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 15–15 | 19–12 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 3–11 | 4–2 |
| Underdog | 12–4 | 15–10 |
| Overs–unders | 17–13 | 19–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 4–0 CGY in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.