Edmonton Oilers at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Connor McDavidGoals2
- Leon DraisaitlAssists3
- Connor McDavidPoints3
Maple Leafs- Steven LorentzGoals1
- Steven LorentzAssists1
- Steven LorentzPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:12Steven Lorentz Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Jake McCabe (10), Troy Stecher (4)6–3
- P39:28Zach Hyman Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (18)6–2
- P31:55Vasily Podkolzin Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Leon Draisaitl (26), Matt Savoie (5)5–2
- P31:21Vasily Podkolzin Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Leon Draisaitl (25), Alec Regula (1)4–2
- P219:29Darnell Nurse Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (24), Connor McDavid (33)3–2
- P210:29Connor McDavid Goal (18) , assists: none2–2
- P24:54Oliver Ekman-Larsson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (22), Max Domi (9)1–2
- P116:03Easton Cowan Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Scott Laughton (1), Steven Lorentz (6)1–1
- P13:25Connor McDavid Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (24)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:03Easton Cowan Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Scott Laughton (1), Steven Lorentz (6)EDM 1 – 1 TOR · TOR 30% → 46% +16TOR 30% → 46%+16 pts
- P24:54Oliver Ekman-Larsson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (22), Max Domi (9)EDM 1 – 2 TOR · TOR 47% → 65% +19TOR 47% → 65%+19 pts
- P210:29Connor McDavid Goal (18) , assists: noneEDM 2 – 2 TOR · EDM 33% → 53% +20EDM 33% → 53%+20 pts
- P219:29Darnell Nurse Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (24), Connor McDavid (33)EDM 3 – 2 TOR · EDM 53% → 75% +23EDM 53% → 75%+23 pts
- P31:21Vasily Podkolzin Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Leon Draisaitl (25), Alec Regula (1)EDM 4 – 2 TOR · EDM 76% → 91% +15EDM 76% → 91%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 54%
- ML EDM -130 / TOR +110
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.3 pts
- EDM: Elo 45.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- EDM -119
- TOR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.4 – 3.1 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +2 | EDM: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · TOR: Dennis Hildeby: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +28 Elo | TOR 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 50.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.38th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.114th of 32 |
| 9th of 3251.8% | Shot share | 46.4%30th of 32 |
| 30th of 3287.9% | Save percentage | 90.4%10th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 30th of 326–11 | Road vs home | 9–918th of 32 |
| 17th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 149032nd of 32 |
| 7th of 321537 | Elo rating | 152610th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–19 | 12–18 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–17 | 4–15 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 18–13 | 18–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 1–3 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.