Utah Mammoth at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth- Michael CarconeGoals2
- John MarinoAssists1
- Michael CarconePoints2
Penguins- Justin BrazeauGoals2
- Ben KindelAssists2
- Ben KindelPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT0:42Dylan Guenther Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: John Marino (15)5–4
- P314:06Justin Brazeau Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Erik Karlsson (21), Ben Kindel (6)4–4
- P37:06Michael Carcone Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Barrett Hayton (3), Daniil But (1)4–3
- P35:35Sean Durzi Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kailer Yamamoto (5), Mikhail Sergachev (18)3–3
- P31:22Michael Carcone Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–3
- P31:07Nate Schmidt Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (18), JJ Peterka (12)1–3
- P25:40Ben Kindel Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Shea (10), Kris Letang (14)0–3
- P115:21Bryan Rust Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Rickard Rakell (6)0–2
- P10:48Justin Brazeau Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Ben Kindel (5), Rutger McGroarty (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P31:22Michael Carcone Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: noneUTA 2 – 3 PIT · UTA 11% → 28% +17UTA 11% → 28%+17 pts
- P35:35Sean Durzi Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kailer Yamamoto (5), Mikhail Sergachev (18)UTA 3 – 3 PIT · UTA 24% → 52% +28UTA 24% → 52%+28 pts
- P37:06Michael Carcone Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Barrett Hayton (3), Daniil But (1)UTA 4 – 3 PIT · UTA 52% → 80% +28UTA 52% → 80%+28 pts
- P314:06Justin Brazeau Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Erik Karlsson (21), Ben Kindel (6)UTA 4 – 4 PIT · PIT 12% → 49% +37PIT 12% → 49%+37 pts
- OT0:42Dylan Guenther Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: John Marino (15)UTA 5 – 4 PIT · UTA 51% → 92% +41UTA 51% → 92%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 54%
- ML UTA -130 / PIT +110
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- UTA: Elo 51.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- UTA -119
- PIT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 3.4 – 3.1 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | PIT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +6 | UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · PIT: Sergei Murashov (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | UTA +7 Elo | UTA 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 52.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.211th of 32 |
| 12th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.014th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.112th of 32 |
| 4th of 3252.9% | Shot share | 50.1%16th of 32 |
| 25th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 90.1%13th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 32 |
| 28th of 327–12 | Road vs home | 5–928th of 32 |
| 25th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 149228th of 32 |
| 17th of 321493 | Elo rating | 147924th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTA |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 15–18 | 20–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–14 | 3–8 |
| Underdog | 9–4 | 17–2 |
| Overs–unders | 17–16 | 15–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 1–1 PIT in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.
