Florida Panthers at Utah Mammoth, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Sam BennettGoals2
- Sam BennettAssists1
- Sam BennettPoints3
Mammoth- Dylan GuentherGoals2
- John MarinoAssists2
- Dylan GuentherPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:08Anton Lundell Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (9), Sam Reinhart (13)4–3
- P214:37Jack McBain Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Sean Durzi (3), Ian Cole (10)3–3
- P23:37Dylan Guenther Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Lawson Crouse (6), John Marino (14)3–2
- P23:24Sam Bennett Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (14)3–1
- P21:40Sam Bennett Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (7), Niko Mikkola (5)2–1
- P119:17Carter Verhaeghe Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (7), Sam Bennett (11)1–1
- P111:23Dylan Guenther Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: John Marino (13)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:23Dylan Guenther Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: John Marino (13)FLA 0 – 1 UTA · UTA 49% → 65% +16UTA 49% → 65%+16 pts
- P119:17Carter Verhaeghe Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (7), Sam Bennett (11)FLA 1 – 1 UTA · FLA 34% → 51% +17FLA 34% → 51%+17 pts
- P21:40Sam Bennett Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (7), Niko Mikkola (5)FLA 2 – 1 UTA · FLA 51% → 68% +18FLA 51% → 68%+18 pts
- P214:37Jack McBain Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Sean Durzi (3), Ian Cole (10)FLA 3 – 3 UTA · UTA 28% → 49% +21UTA 28% → 49%+21 pts
- P319:08Anton Lundell Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (9), Sam Reinhart (13)FLA 4 – 3 UTA · FLA 50% → >99% +50FLA 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 51%
- ML FLA -115 / UTA -105
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- FLA: Elo 51.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- FLA -104
- UTA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.8 – 2.7 UTA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | UTA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +6 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +10 Elo | FLA 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 51.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.912th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.114th of 32 |
| 5th of 3252.9% | Shot share | 53.5%4th of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 88.9%25th of 32 |
| 11th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Road vs home | 7–59th of 32 |
| 29th of 321492 | Opponent Elo | 149427th of 32 |
| 6th of 321538 | Elo rating | 149217th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–20 | 13–18 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–19 | 5–14 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 14–14 | 15–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 2–0 UTA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.