Los Angeles Kings at Utah Mammoth, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Joel ArmiaGoals2
- Kevin FialaAssists2
- Joel ArmiaPoints2
Mammoth- Clayton KellerGoals1
- Clayton KellerAssists1
- Clayton KellerPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:22Joel Armia Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: none4–2
- P312:15Clayton Keller Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Nick Schmaltz (15), JJ Peterka (11)3–2
- P33:27Anze Kopitar Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Adrian Kempe (16), Joel Edmundson (10)3–1
- P20:34Dylan Guenther Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (18), Mikhail Sergachev (16)2–1
- P110:08Joel Armia Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (11)2–0
- P17:50Adrian Kempe Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Kevin Fiala (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:50Adrian Kempe Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Kevin Fiala (10)LA 1 – 0 UTA · LA 50% → 66% +15LA 50% → 66%+15 pts
- P110:08Joel Armia Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (11)LA 2 – 0 UTA · LA 66% → 79% +13LA 66% → 79%+13 pts
- P20:34Dylan Guenther Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (18), Mikhail Sergachev (16)LA 2 – 1 UTA · UTA 18% → 32% +14UTA 18% → 32%+14 pts
- P33:27Anze Kopitar Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Adrian Kempe (16), Joel Edmundson (10)LA 3 – 1 UTA · LA 76% → 92% +16LA 76% → 92%+16 pts
- P312:15Clayton Keller Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Nick Schmaltz (15), JJ Peterka (11)LA 3 – 2 UTA · UTA 2% → 15% +13UTA 2% → 15%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- LA 50%
- ML LA -112 / UTA -108
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- LA: Elo 47.9%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- LA -102
- UTA +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.8 – 2.7 UTA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | UTA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +8 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTA +14 Elo | UTA 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.911th of 32 |
| 15th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.29th of 32 |
| 8th of 3252.3% | Shot share | 53.8%4th of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 88.9%25th of 32 |
| 23rd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 32 |
| 6th of 329–6 | Road vs home | 7–46th of 32 |
| 25th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 149427th of 32 |
| 11th of 321519 | Elo rating | 149615th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–17 | 13–17 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–15 | 5–13 |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 12–16 | 14–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 3–0 UTA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.