Columbus Blue Jackets at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Dmitri VoronkovGoals1
- Ivan ProvorovAssists2
- Miles WoodPoints2
Panthers- Carter VerhaegheGoals2
- Brad MarchandAssists3
- Brad MarchandPoints4
Scoring summary
- OT4:56Sam Bennett Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (15), Gustav Forsling (12)6–7
- P314:18Anton Lundell Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (8)6–6
- P34:21Brad Marchand Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (10), Carter Verhaeghe (13)6–5
- P32:27Isac Lundeström Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Miles Wood (4), Brendan Smith (2)6–4
- P218:26Cole Sillinger Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Denton Mateychuk (6)5–4
- P216:12Seth Jones Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (11), Sam Bennett (9)4–4
- P213:11Carter Verhaeghe Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (14), Sam Bennett (8)4–3
- P211:15Carter Verhaeghe Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Seth Jones (11), Brad Marchand (13)4–2
- P210:24Kirill Marchenko Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Adam Fantilli (9), Dmitri Voronkov (10)4–1
- P25:57Miles Wood Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Charlie Coyle (15), Isac Lundeström (4)3–1
- P25:26Dmitri Voronkov Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Ivan Provorov (7), Zach Werenski (21)2–1
- P19:47Evan Rodrigues Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (10)1–1
- P17:40Damon Severson Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Ivan Provorov (6), Cole Sillinger (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:26Dmitri Voronkov Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Ivan Provorov (7), Zach Werenski (21)CBJ 2 – 1 FLA · CBJ 43% → 62% +19CBJ 43% → 62%+19 pts
- P216:12Seth Jones Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (11), Sam Bennett (9)CBJ 4 – 4 FLA · FLA 33% → 56% +23FLA 33% → 56%+23 pts
- P218:26Cole Sillinger Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Denton Mateychuk (6)CBJ 5 – 4 FLA · CBJ 44% → 68% +24CBJ 44% → 68%+24 pts
- P314:18Anton Lundell Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (8)CBJ 6 – 6 FLA · FLA 13% → 53% +40FLA 13% → 53%+40 pts
- OT4:56Sam Bennett Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (15), Gustav Forsling (12)CBJ 6 – 7 FLA · FLA 50% → 100% +50FLA 50% → 100%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 59%
- ML CBJ +136 / FLA -162
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- FLA: Elo 63.4%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- FLA -146
- CBJ +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.0 – 3.5 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −15 | +6 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.37 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +95 Elo | FLA 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 60.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 61.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.023rd of 32 |
| 21st of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.219th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.222nd of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.5% | Shot share | 52.5%7th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 89.3%21st of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 16th of 327–8 | Road vs home | 8–818th of 32 |
| 4th of 321507 | Opponent Elo | 149130th of 32 |
| 17th of 321493 | Elo rating | 15338th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–13 | 7–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–8 | 5–18 |
| Underdog | 13–5 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 14–13 | 13–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 0–6 FLA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.