New York Islanders at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Mathew BarzalGoals1
- Ryan PulockAssists1
- Mathew BarzalPoints1
Panthers- Sam ReinhartGoals1
- Sam ReinhartAssists1
- Sam ReinhartPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:06Sam Reinhart Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Forsling (13)1–4
- P313:57Seth Jones Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (15), Sam Reinhart (12)1–3
- P29:03Mathew Barzal Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Matthew Schaefer (13), Ryan Pulock (14)1–2
- P27:05Carter Verhaeghe Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeff Petry (6)0–2
- P112:14Uvis Balinskis Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (11), A.J. Greer (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:14Uvis Balinskis Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (11), A.J. Greer (6)NYI 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 58% → 73% +15FLA 58% → 73%+15 pts
- P27:05Carter Verhaeghe Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeff Petry (6)NYI 0 – 2 FLA · FLA 75% → 88% +13FLA 75% → 88%+13 pts
- P29:03Mathew Barzal Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Matthew Schaefer (13), Ryan Pulock (14)NYI 1 – 2 FLA · NYI 12% → 25% +13NYI 12% → 25%+13 pts
- P313:57Seth Jones Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (15), Sam Reinhart (12)NYI 1 – 3 FLA · FLA 89% → >99% +10FLA 89% → >99%+10 pts
- P317:06Sam Reinhart Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Forsling (13)NYI 1 – 4 FLA · FLA >99% → >99% +0FLA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 59%
- ML NYI +136 / FLA -162
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- FLA: Elo 57.1%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- FLA -146
- NYI +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 3.0 – 3.5 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | FLA and NYI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −26 | NYI: David Rittich: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · FLA: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.65 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +50 Elo | FLA 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 59.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.114th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.321st of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.221st of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.5% | Shot share | 52.6%7th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 88.9%25th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 3rd of 329–5 | Road vs home | 9–816th of 32 |
| 1st of 321511 | Opponent Elo | 149130th of 32 |
| 21st of 321488 | Elo rating | 15348th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–15 | 7–20 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 1–10 | 5–19 |
| Underdog | 13–5 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 14–15 | 14–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 3–3 FLA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.