Seattle Kraken at Utah Mammoth, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Ben MeyersGoals1
- Frederick GaudreauAssists1
- Ben MeyersPoints1
Mammoth- Nick SchmaltzGoals1
- Kevin StenlundAssists3
- Nick SchmaltzPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:17Ben Meyers Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tye Kartye (4), Ryan Winterton (3)3–5
- P318:58Lawson Crouse Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (17), Kevin Stenlund (7)2–5
- P317:49JJ Peterka Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Kevin Stenlund (6)2–4
- P312:55Dylan Guenther Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (16), Mikhail Sergachev (17)2–3
- P37:50Mason Marchment Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan Lindgren (4), Brandon Montour (10)2–2
- P213:24Kailer Yamamoto Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Liam O'Brien (1), Kevin Stenlund (5)1–2
- P28:09Nick Schmaltz Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P23:35Mason Marchment Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Freddy Gaudreau (3), Chandler Stephenson (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:35Mason Marchment Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Freddy Gaudreau (3), Chandler Stephenson (11)SEA 1 – 0 UTA · SEA 40% → 58% +19SEA 40% → 58%+19 pts
- P28:09Nick Schmaltz Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSEA 1 – 1 UTA · UTA 40% → 60% +20UTA 40% → 60%+20 pts
- P213:24Kailer Yamamoto Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Liam O'Brien (1), Kevin Stenlund (5)SEA 1 – 2 UTA · UTA 59% → 78% +19UTA 59% → 78%+19 pts
- P37:50Mason Marchment Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan Lindgren (4), Brandon Montour (10)SEA 2 – 2 UTA · SEA 17% → 44% +27SEA 17% → 44%+27 pts
- P312:55Dylan Guenther Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (16), Mikhail Sergachev (17)SEA 2 – 3 UTA · UTA 55% → 88% +33UTA 55% → 88%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 63%
- ML SEA +160 / UTA -192
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- UTA: Elo 61.3%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- UTA -171
- SEA +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.4 – 3.1 UTA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | UTA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −13 | +5 | SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.32 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTA +80 Elo | UTA 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 62.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.913th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.115th of 32 |
| 27th of 3247.6% | Shot share | 53.2%4th of 32 |
| 15th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 88.9%25th of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 25th of 325–8 | Road vs home | 7–614th of 32 |
| 17th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 149621st of 32 |
| 28th of 321463 | Elo rating | 149018th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–9 | 14–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 5–14 |
| Underdog | 16–6 | 9–4 |
| Overs–unders | 11–17 | 16–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 2–1 UTA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.
