Los Angeles Kings at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Alex LaferriereGoals1
- Joel ArmiaAssists1
- Kevin FialaPoints1
Kraken- Vince DunnGoals1
- Vince DunnAssists2
- Vince DunnPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT1:21Vince Dunn Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (11), Jordan Eberle (9)2–3
- P319:34Matty Beniers Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (10), Vince Dunn (12)2–2
- P314:40Kevin Fiala Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Anze Kopitar (10), Adrian Kempe (17)2–1
- P28:16Alex Laferriere Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Joel Armia (7)1–1
- P23:21Jared McCann Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (11), Chandler Stephenson (10)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:21Jared McCann Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (11), Chandler Stephenson (10)LA 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 44% → 63% +18SEA 44% → 63%+18 pts
- P28:16Alex Laferriere Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Joel Armia (7)LA 1 – 1 SEA · LA 36% → 55% +20LA 36% → 55%+20 pts
- P314:40Kevin Fiala Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Anze Kopitar (10), Adrian Kempe (17)LA 2 – 1 SEA · LA 52% → 90% +38LA 52% → 90%+38 pts
- P319:34Matty Beniers Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (10), Vince Dunn (12)LA 2 – 2 SEA · SEA <1% → 49% +49SEA <1% → 49%+49 pts
- OT1:21Vince Dunn Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (11), Jordan Eberle (9)LA 2 – 3 SEA · SEA 48% → 92% +44SEA 48% → 92%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- LA 57%
- ML LA -148 / SEA +124
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- LA: Elo 52.4%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- LA -134
- SEA +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 3.0 – 2.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −10 | +1 | LA: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +17 Elo | LA 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 52.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.532nd of 32 |
| 6th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.629th of 32 |
| 7th of 3252.4% | Shot share | 47.3%28th of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 89.7%16th of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3210–6 | Road vs home | 6–825th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 149818th of 32 |
| 11th of 321523 | Elo rating | 146129th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–17 | 18–9 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–15 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 8–2 | 15–6 |
| Overs–unders | 13–16 | 11–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 4–3 SEA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.