Minnesota Wild at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Joel Eriksson EkGoals1
- Joel Eriksson EkAssists2
- Joel Eriksson EkPoints3
Kraken- Jordan EberleGoals1
- Jared McCannAssists1
- Jordan EberlePoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:00Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (14)4–1
- P318:45Kirill Kaprizov Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Nico Sturm (2), Jared Spurgeon (4)3–1
- P38:12Marcus Johansson Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (13)2–1
- P26:48Jordan Eberle Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Chandler Stephenson (9), Jared McCann (3)1–1
- P21:18Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (16), Jake Middleton (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:18Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (16), Jake Middleton (6)MIN 1 – 0 SEA · MIN 54% → 71% +17MIN 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P26:48Jordan Eberle Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Chandler Stephenson (9), Jared McCann (3)MIN 1 – 1 SEA · SEA 28% → 46% +18SEA 28% → 46%+18 pts
- P38:12Marcus Johansson Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (13)MIN 2 – 1 SEA · MIN 52% → 81% +29MIN 52% → 81%+29 pts
- P318:45Kirill Kaprizov Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Nico Sturm (2), Jared Spurgeon (4)MIN 3 – 1 SEA · MIN >99% → >99% +1MIN >99% → >99%+1 pts
- P319:00Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (14)MIN 4 – 1 SEA · MIN >99% → 100% +0MIN >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 55%
- ML MIN -135 / SEA +114
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- MIN: Elo 51.7%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -123
- SEA +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.9 – 2.6 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −14 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.34 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +12 Elo | MIN 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.532nd of 32 |
| 7th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.016th of 32 |
| 16th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.528th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.0% | Shot share | 47.3%26th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.7% | Save percentage | 89.6%17th of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 13th of 327–7 | Road vs home | 6–724th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 32 |
| 13th of 321502 | Elo rating | 146529th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–13 | 18–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–10 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 13–3 | 15–5 |
| Overs–unders | 13–16 | 11–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 4–2 SEA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.