New Jersey Devils at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Arseny GritsyukGoals1
- Connor BrownAssists3
- Arseny GritsyukPoints3
Senators- Drake BathersonGoals2
- Brady TkachukAssists2
- Drake BathersonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P312:24Cody Glass Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Arseny Gritsyuk (9), Connor Brown (6)4–3
- P210:35Drake Batherson Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (10), Tim Stützle (14)3–3
- P24:21Paul Cotter Goal (3) Backhand, assists: none3–2
- P117:59Arseny Gritsyuk Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Brown (5), Cody Glass (1)2–2
- P112:59Tim Stützle Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (8), Dylan Cozens (9)1–2
- P15:09Simon Nemec Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Connor Brown (4), Arseny Gritsyuk (8)1–1
- P11:36Drake Batherson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (7), Jake Sanderson (18)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:59Tim Stützle Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (8), Dylan Cozens (9)NJ 1 – 2 OTT · OTT 57% → 73% +15OTT 57% → 73%+15 pts
- P117:59Arseny Gritsyuk Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Brown (5), Cody Glass (1)NJ 2 – 2 OTT · NJ 27% → 43% +16NJ 27% → 43%+16 pts
- P24:21Paul Cotter Goal (3) Backhand, assists: noneNJ 3 – 2 OTT · NJ 44% → 62% +19NJ 44% → 62%+19 pts
- P210:35Drake Batherson Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (10), Tim Stützle (14)NJ 3 – 3 OTT · OTT 35% → 56% +20OTT 35% → 56%+20 pts
- P312:24Cody Glass Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Arseny Gritsyuk (9), Connor Brown (6)NJ 4 – 3 OTT · NJ 47% → 83% +36NJ 47% → 83%+36 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 58%
- ML NJ +130 / OTT -155
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- OTT: Elo 56.0%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- OTT -140
- NJ +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.5 – 3.0 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −2 | NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +42 Elo | OTT 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 58.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.113th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.323rd of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.221st of 32 |
| 13th of 3251.0% | Shot share | 51.3%11th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 87.7%32nd of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 16th of 327–8 | Road vs home | 6–724th of 32 |
| 7th of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 149622nd of 32 |
| 18th of 321489 | Elo rating | 149714th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–19 | 10–18 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–15 | 3–16 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 14–15 | 17–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 3–3 OTT in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 6.