New Jersey Devils at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Timo MeierGoals1
- Luke HughesAssists1
- Timo MeierPoints1
Bruins- Morgan GeekieGoals1
- Elias LindholmAssists1
- Andrew PeekePoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:46Andrew Peeke Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none1–4
- P316:25Casey Mittelstadt Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (14), Viktor Arvidsson (6)1–3
- P21:12Morgan Geekie Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (13)1–2
- P118:39Timo Meier Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (16), Luke Hughes (14)1–1
- P117:42Fraser Minten Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Kastelic (5), Tanner Jeannot (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:42Fraser Minten Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Kastelic (5), Tanner Jeannot (9)NJ 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 48% → 65% +17BOS 48% → 65%+17 pts
- P118:39Timo Meier Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (16), Luke Hughes (14)NJ 1 – 1 BOS · NJ 35% → 52% +17NJ 35% → 52%+17 pts
- P21:12Morgan Geekie Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (13)NJ 1 – 2 BOS · BOS 48% → 66% +18BOS 48% → 66%+18 pts
- P316:25Casey Mittelstadt Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (14), Viktor Arvidsson (6)NJ 1 – 3 BOS · BOS 93% → >99% +7BOS 93% → >99%+7 pts
- P317:46Andrew Peeke Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: noneNJ 1 – 4 BOS · BOS >99% → >99% +0BOS >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 52%
- ML NJ -120 / BOS +100
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 41%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.9 pts
- NJ: Elo 41.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NJ -109
- BOS +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.8 – 2.7 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +4 | NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +62 Elo | BOS 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.213th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.219th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | 0.017th of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.8% | Shot share | 46.6%29th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 90.1%13th of 32 |
| 30th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–58th of 32 |
| 13th of 327–7 | Road vs home | 10–53rd of 32 |
| 8th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 150410th of 32 |
| 16th of 321493 | Elo rating | 148520th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–18 | 21–8 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–14 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 20–5 |
| Overs–unders | 14–14 | 16–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 3–3 BOS in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.