Ottawa Senators at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Jake SandersonGoals1
- Tim StutzleAssists3
- Tim StutzlePoints3
Jets- Neal PionkGoals1
- Morgan BarronAssists1
- Neal PionkPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT2:11Brady Tkachuk Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (18), Jake Sanderson (19)3–2
- P318:06Jake Sanderson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (17)2–2
- P218:35Logan Stanley Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Barron (5), Gabriel Vilardi (14)1–2
- P215:37Neal Pionk Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (26), Cole Perfetti (5)1–1
- P210:47Nick Cousins Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Kurtis MacDermid (1), Tim Stützle (16)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P210:47Nick Cousins Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Kurtis MacDermid (1), Tim Stützle (16)OTT 1 – 0 WPG · OTT 47% → 67% +20OTT 47% → 67%+20 pts
- P215:37Neal Pionk Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (26), Cole Perfetti (5)OTT 1 – 1 WPG · WPG 31% → 53% +22WPG 31% → 53%+22 pts
- P218:35Logan Stanley Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Barron (5), Gabriel Vilardi (14)OTT 1 – 2 WPG · WPG 53% → 75% +22WPG 53% → 75%+22 pts
- P318:06Jake Sanderson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (17)OTT 2 – 2 WPG · OTT 2% → 49% +47OTT 2% → 49%+47 pts
- OT2:11Brady Tkachuk Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (18), Jake Sanderson (19)OTT 3 – 2 WPG · OTT 49% → 95% +46OTT 49% → 95%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 54%
- ML OTT +110 / WPG -130
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.9 pts
- WPG: Elo 62.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- WPG -119
- OTT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.6 – 2.9 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +13 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.33 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +86 Elo | WPG 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 53.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.115th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.1 | Margin | 0.016th of 32 |
| 9th of 3251.8% | Shot share | 48.3%22nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 3287.7% | Save percentage | 90.0%14th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 18th of 328–9 | Road vs home | 8–715th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 149327th of 32 |
| 14th of 321497 | Elo rating | 15338th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–19 | 14–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–17 | 10–13 |
| Underdog | 8–2 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 19–12 | 18–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 1–3 WPG in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.