Washington Capitals at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Jakob ChychrunGoals1
- Alex OvechkinAssists1
- Jakob ChychrunPoints1
Jets- Gabriel VilardiGoals2
- Mark ScheifeleAssists2
- Gabriel VilardiPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:32Jakob Chychrun Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: John Carlson (18), Alex Ovechkin (17)1–5
- P311:55Gabriel Vilardi Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (25), Mark Scheifele (24)0–5
- P219:53Gabriel Vilardi Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Kyle Connor (24), Josh Morrissey (23)0–4
- P23:39Alex Iafallo Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Lowry (4)0–3
- P118:43Morgan Barron Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Adam Lowry (3), Alex Iafallo (6)0–2
- P19:13Logan Stanley Goal (5) Batted, assists: Josh Morrissey (22), Mark Scheifele (23)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:13Logan Stanley Goal (5) Batted, assists: Josh Morrissey (22), Mark Scheifele (23)WSH 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 48% → 64% +16WPG 48% → 64%+16 pts
- P118:43Morgan Barron Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Adam Lowry (3), Alex Iafallo (6)WSH 0 – 2 WPG · WPG 65% → 80% +14WPG 65% → 80%+14 pts
- P23:39Alex Iafallo Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Lowry (4)WSH 0 – 3 WPG · WPG 81% → 91% +10WPG 81% → 91%+10 pts
- P219:53Gabriel Vilardi Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Kyle Connor (24), Josh Morrissey (23)WSH 0 – 4 WPG · WPG 97% → >99% +3WPG 97% → >99%+3 pts
- P311:55Gabriel Vilardi Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (25), Mark Scheifele (24)WSH 0 – 5 WPG · WPG >99% → >99% +0WPG >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 52%
- ML WSH -120 / WPG +100
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- WSH: Elo 46.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- WSH -109
- WPG +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.8 – 2.7 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +13 | WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.33 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +27 Elo | WPG 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 52.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.219th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+0.9 | Margin | −0.120th of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.2% | Shot share | 47.9%24th of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.6% | Save percentage | 89.8%16th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 9th of 328–6 | Road vs home | 7–718th of 32 |
| 9th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 149229th of 32 |
| 4th of 321543 | Elo rating | 15289th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–12 | 13–17 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–11 | 10–13 |
| Underdog | 8–1 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 14–17 | 17–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 2–3 WPG in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.