Boston Bruins at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals2
- Morgan GeekieAssists3
- David PastrnakPoints4
Jets- Morgan BarronGoals1
- Dylan DeMeloAssists1
- Alex IafalloPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:04David Pastrnak Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (13), Elias Lindholm (15)6–3
- P314:43Elias Lindholm Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (23), Nikita Zadorov (10)5–3
- P217:46Gabriel Vilardi Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (4), Kyle Connor (23)4–3
- P214:36Hampus Lindholm Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (22), Morgan Geekie (12)4–2
- P113:37Alex Iafallo Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan DeMelo (12), Dylan Samberg (5)3–2
- P111:08Sean Kuraly Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Tanner Jeannot (10), Mark Kastelic (6)3–1
- P110:28Casey Mittelstadt Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Lohrei (11), Viktor Arvidsson (7)2–1
- P18:24David Pastrnak Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (15), Morgan Geekie (11)1–1
- P15:59Morgan Barron Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Josh Morrissey (21), Cole Koepke (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:28Casey Mittelstadt Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Lohrei (11), Viktor Arvidsson (7)BOS 2 – 1 WPG · BOS 42% → 58% +16BOS 42% → 58%+16 pts
- P111:08Sean Kuraly Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Tanner Jeannot (10), Mark Kastelic (6)BOS 3 – 1 WPG · BOS 59% → 73% +15BOS 59% → 73%+15 pts
- P113:37Alex Iafallo Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan DeMelo (12), Dylan Samberg (5)BOS 3 – 2 WPG · WPG 26% → 41% +15WPG 26% → 41%+15 pts
- P214:36Hampus Lindholm Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (22), Morgan Geekie (12)BOS 4 – 2 WPG · BOS 66% → 84% +17BOS 66% → 84%+17 pts
- P217:46Gabriel Vilardi Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (4), Kyle Connor (23)BOS 4 – 3 WPG · WPG 14% → 32% +18WPG 14% → 32%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 58%
- ML BOS +130 / WPG -155
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- WPG: Elo 60.2%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- WPG -140
- BOS +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.0 – 3.5 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | −8 | BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · WPG: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +72 Elo | WPG 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 63.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 63.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.017th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.2 | Margin | 0.018th of 32 |
| 29th of 3246.7% | Shot share | 47.7%25th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 90.1%15th of 32 |
| 5th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 18th of 327–8 | Road vs home | 7–612th of 32 |
| 9th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 149130th of 32 |
| 15th of 321494 | Elo rating | 15348th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–8 | 13–16 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 10–12 |
| Underdog | 22–5 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 17–14 | 16–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 1–3 WPG in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.