Boston Bruins at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Mark KastelicGoals2
- David PastrnakAssists3
- David PastrnakPoints3
Blues- Robert ThomasGoals2
- Pavel BuchnevichAssists2
- Robert ThomasPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:19Pavel Zacha Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (14), David Pastrnak (21)5–2
- P311:33Fraser Minten Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (20), Andrew Peeke (5)4–2
- P38:01Mark Kastelic Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Kuraly (6), Nikita Zadorov (9)3–2
- P34:51Robert Thomas Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (11)2–2
- P214:34Mark Kastelic Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Sean Kuraly (5), Victor Soderstrom (1)2–1
- P212:48Fraser Minten Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Marat Khusnutdinov (4), David Pastrnak (19)1–1
- P15:27Robert Thomas Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (10), Justin Faulk (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:27Robert Thomas Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (10), Justin Faulk (9)BOS 0 – 1 STL · STL 53% → 68% +15STL 53% → 68%+15 pts
- P212:48Fraser Minten Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Marat Khusnutdinov (4), David Pastrnak (19)BOS 1 – 1 STL · BOS 28% → 48% +20BOS 28% → 48%+20 pts
- P214:34Mark Kastelic Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Sean Kuraly (5), Victor Soderstrom (1)BOS 2 – 1 STL · BOS 48% → 69% +22BOS 48% → 69%+22 pts
- P34:51Robert Thomas Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (11)BOS 2 – 2 STL · STL 25% → 52% +27STL 25% → 52%+27 pts
- P38:01Mark Kastelic Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Kuraly (6), Nikita Zadorov (9)BOS 3 – 2 STL · BOS 49% → 78% +30BOS 49% → 78%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- STL 53%
- ML BOS +105 / STL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- STL: Elo 53.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -114
- BOS +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.7 – 2.8 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −1 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +27 Elo | STL 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 61.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.527th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.931st of 32 |
| 29th of 3246.5% | Shot share | 47.7%26th of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 88.3%27th of 32 |
| 10th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 32 |
| 20th of 326–8 | Road vs home | 5–1028th of 32 |
| 9th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 149427th of 32 |
| 18th of 321489 | Elo rating | 148720th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–8 | 14–16 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 1–14 |
| Underdog | 21–5 | 13–2 |
| Overs–unders | 16–14 | 14–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 3–2 STL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.