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Dallas Stars at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, Victory+

Away

Stars

21-5-5

4–3

at

Home

Jets

14-14-1

DAL 57%WPG 43%

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Canada Life Centre · ESPN+, Victory+

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.

WPG favored DAL favored7 scoring plays
P1P2P3WPG50%DAL

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Scoring summary

  • P35:54Logan Stanley Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (3), Gabriel Vilardi (13)4–3
  • P34:46Jason Robertson Goal (19) Slap Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (21), Mikko Rantanen (29)4–2
  • P218:52Mark Scheifele Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (20), Kyle Connor (22)3–2
  • P211:04Mark Scheifele Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (21)3–1
  • P22:31Alexander Petrovic Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Mavrik Bourque (6)3–0
  • P21:16Roope Hintz Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (28), Wyatt Johnston (20)2–0
  • P10:44Esa Lindell Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (19), Mikko Rantanen (27)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P10:44Esa Lindell Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (19), Mikko Rantanen (27)DAL 1 – 0 WPG · DAL 57% → 71% +14
  2. P21:16Roope Hintz Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (28), Wyatt Johnston (20)DAL 2 – 0 WPG · DAL 73% → 85% +13
  3. P218:52Mark Scheifele Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (20), Kyle Connor (22)DAL 3 – 2 WPG · WPG 9% → 23% +14
  4. P34:46Jason Robertson Goal (19) Slap Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (21), Mikko Rantanen (29)DAL 4 – 2 WPG · DAL 79% → 94% +15
  5. P35:54Logan Stanley Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (3), Gabriel Vilardi (13)DAL 4 – 3 WPG · WPG 6% → 20% +14

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Stars 57%

LeanHit
DAL 57%WPG 43%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
DAL 57%
ML DAL -148 / WPG +124
Pre-line forecast
DAL 52%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
DAL 50%
Ratings vs. market
−7.2 pts
DAL: Elo 50.0%, market 57.2%
Fair odds
DAL -134
WPG +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
DAL 3.0 – 2.5 WPG
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorDALWPGWhy
Team rating15601536Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+3−8DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · WPG: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsWPG 0 EloWPG 50.0%
Market-implied ratingsDAL 52.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastDAL 51.6%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastDAL 57.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Dallas Stars and Winnipeg Jets compared, with each team's league rank
DALStatWPG
3rd of 323.5Goals scored3.016th of 32
4th of 322.6Goals allowed3.015th of 32
2nd of 32+0.9Margin0.017th of 32
21st of 3248.3%Shot share47.1%28th of 32
5th of 3291.3%Save percentage90.4%12th of 32
1st of 328–2Last 103–728th of 32
2nd of 3210–5Road vs home7–59th of 32
21st of 321497Opponent Elo148832nd of 32
2nd of 321560Elo rating15368th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

StarsJets
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonDALWPG
Puck line13–1712–16
Last 105–55–5
Favorite5–1710–12
Underdog8–02–4
Overs–unders13–1715–13
Overs–unders, last 103–75–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

DAL 9–6 WPG in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 15.