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Columbus Blue Jackets at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, MNMT, FanDuel SN OH

Away

Blue Jackets

13-10-6

0–2

at

Home

Capitals

18-9-3

CBJ 38%WSH 62%

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Capital One Arena · ESPN+, MNMT, FanDuel SN OH

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.

WSH favored CBJ favored2 scoring plays
P1P2P3WSH50%CBJ

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Blue Jackets

    Scoring summary

    • P318:34Aliaksei Protas Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Fehervary (8)0–2
    • P20:50Jakob Chychrun Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (15), Anthony Beauvillier (5)0–1

    Turning points

    The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

    1. P20:50Jakob Chychrun Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (15), Anthony Beauvillier (5)CBJ 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 59% → 76% +16
    2. P318:34Aliaksei Protas Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Fehervary (8)CBJ 0 – 2 WSH · WSH >99% → >99% +1

    The pick

    Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

    Capitals 62%

    LeanHit
    CBJ 38%WSH 62%

    Forecast Elo ratings alone

    How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.

    Market
    WSH 62%
    ML CBJ +150 / WSH -180
    Pre-line forecast
    WSH 67%
    Elo + market-implied
    Elo ratings
    WSH 66%
    Ratings vs. market
    +4.1 pts
    WSH: Elo 65.7%, market 61.6%
    Fair odds
    WSH -161
    CBJ +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
    Pregame projection
    CBJ 2.9 – 3.6 WSH
    Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

    How the number is built

    Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

    FactorCBJWSHWhy
    Team rating14911544Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
    Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
    Rest−30—CBJ on the second night of a back-to-back
    Starting goalies+11+6CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts)
    Elo ratingsWSH +113 EloWSH 65.7%
    Market-implied ratingsWSH 67.9%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
    Pre-line forecastWSH 67.5%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
    ForecastWSH 61.6%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

    Tale of the tape

    This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

    Try another venue →
    Columbus Blue Jackets and Washington Capitals compared, with each team's league rank
    CBJStatWSH
    9th of 323.2Goals scored3.54th of 32
    26th of 323.5Goals allowed2.63rd of 32
    24th of 32−0.3Margin+0.93rd of 32
    17th of 3249.3%Shot share52.8%7th of 32
    20th of 3289.3%Save percentage91.0%5th of 32
    22nd of 324–6Last 108–21st of 32
    18th of 327–9Road vs home9–67th of 32
    4th of 321508Opponent Elo150312th of 32
    16th of 321491Elo rating15444th of 32

    Rating history

    Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

    Blue JacketsCapitals
    1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

    Recent form

    Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

    Against the line

    How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

    This seasonCBJWSH
    Puck line15–1317–12
    Last 104–67–3
    Favorite1–810–11
    Underdog14–57–1
    Overs–unders15–1314–15
    Overs–unders, last 107–36–4

    Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

    Head to head

    CBJ 2–7 WSH in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.