Carolina Hurricanes at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Nikolaj EhlersGoals1
- Nikolaj EhlersAssists1
- Nikolaj EhlersPoints2
Capitals- Connor McMichaelGoals1
- Rasmus SandinAssists2
- Connor McMichaelPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Seth Jarvis Goal Snap Shot1–0
- P317:45Logan Stankoven Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (14), Jalen Chatfield (5)2–2
- P311:32Nic Dowd Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Sandin (7), Connor McMichael (12)1–2
- P213:43Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Stankoven (8), Alexander Nikishin (7)1–1
- P25:00Connor McMichael Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Alex Ovechkin (16), Rasmus Sandin (6)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:00Connor McMichael Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Alex Ovechkin (16), Rasmus Sandin (6)CAR 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 49% → 68% +18WSH 49% → 68%+18 pts
- P213:43Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Stankoven (8), Alexander Nikishin (7)CAR 1 – 1 WSH · CAR 30% → 51% +21CAR 30% → 51%+21 pts
- P311:32Nic Dowd Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Sandin (7), Connor McMichael (12)CAR 1 – 2 WSH · WSH 50% → 83% +34WSH 50% → 83%+34 pts
- P317:45Logan Stankoven Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (14), Jalen Chatfield (5)CAR 2 – 2 WSH · CAR 3% → 50% +47CAR 3% → 50%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 51%
- ML CAR -115 / WSH -105
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- CAR: Elo 44.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CAR -104
- WSH +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 2.8 – 2.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | +7 | CAR: Brandon Bussi: team allows 0.27 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +37 Elo | WSH 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 50.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.44th of 32 |
| 9th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.52nd of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.5 | Margin | +0.93rd of 32 |
| 1st of 3257.8% | Shot share | 52.7%6th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 91.4%4th of 32 |
| 11th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 3rd of 328–5 | Road vs home | 10–66th of 32 |
| 14th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 150212th of 32 |
| 6th of 321540 | Elo rating | 15464th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–17 | 18–12 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–17 | 11–11 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 7–1 |
| Overs–unders | 15–14 | 14–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 8–6 WSH in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 14.
- Nov 11WSH 4 @ CAR 1Picked CAR 57%Miss
- May 15CAR 3 @ WSH 1PlayoffsPicked CAR 59%Hit
- May 12WSH 2 @ CAR 5PlayoffsPicked CAR 68%Hit
- May 10WSH 0 @ CAR 4PlayoffsPicked CAR 68%Hit
- May 8CAR 1 @ WSH 3PlayoffsPicked CAR 58%Miss
- May 6CAR 2 @ WSH 1PlayoffsPicked CAR 56%Hit
- Apr 10CAR 4 @ WSH 5Picked CAR 59%Miss
- Apr 2WSH 1 @ CAR 5Picked CAR 66%Hit