Columbus Blue Jackets at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Dmitri VoronkovGoals1
- Kirill MarchenkoAssists1
- Dmitri VoronkovPoints1
Hurricanes- Jordan StaalGoals1
- Andrei SvechnikovAssists2
- Andrei SvechnikovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:45Jordan Martinook Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: K'Andre Miller (11), Sean Walker (6)1–4
- P313:38Jordan Staal Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (10), Shayne Gostisbehere (19)1–3
- P37:53Eric Robinson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (9), Joel Nystrom (4)1–2
- P29:42Seth Jarvis Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (9)1–1
- P112:39Dmitri Voronkov Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Sean Monahan (12), Kirill Marchenko (15)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:39Dmitri Voronkov Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Sean Monahan (12), Kirill Marchenko (15)CBJ 1 – 0 CAR · CBJ 36% → 52% +16CBJ 36% → 52%+16 pts
- P29:42Seth Jarvis Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (9)CBJ 1 – 1 CAR · CAR 41% → 61% +20CAR 41% → 61%+20 pts
- P37:53Eric Robinson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (9), Joel Nystrom (4)CBJ 1 – 2 CAR · CAR 57% → 84% +27CAR 57% → 84%+27 pts
- P313:38Jordan Staal Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (10), Shayne Gostisbehere (19)CBJ 1 – 3 CAR · CAR 89% → >99% +10CAR 89% → >99%+10 pts
- P318:45Jordan Martinook Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: K'Andre Miller (11), Sean Walker (6)CBJ 1 – 4 CAR · CAR >99% → >99% +0CAR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 66%
- ML CBJ +180 / CAR -218
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- CAR: Elo 61.4%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- CAR -192
- CBJ +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.8 – 3.7 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | +8 | CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.27 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · CAR: Brandon Bussi: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +81 Elo | CAR 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 65.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 64.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.45th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.912th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.46th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.4% | Shot share | 57.8%1st of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 89.0%24th of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 32 |
| 22nd of 327–10 | Road vs home | 9–67th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321510 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 32 |
| 19th of 321488 | Elo rating | 15377th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 15–14 | 11–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–8 | 9–17 |
| Underdog | 14–6 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 15–14 | 15–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 3–5 CAR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.