Ottawa Senators at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Tim StutzleGoals2
- Dylan CozensAssists3
- Michael AmadioPoints3
Blue Jackets- Boone JennerGoals1
- Zach WerenskiAssists2
- Boone JennerPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:37Claude Giroux Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Amadio (7)6–3
- P217:59Tim Stützle Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Michael Amadio (6), Artem Zub (9)5–3
- P28:10Dmitri Voronkov Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Marchenko (16), Zach Werenski (23)4–3
- P23:02Dante Fabbro Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Boone Jenner (8), Kent Johnson (4)4–2
- P119:26Michael Amadio Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Claude Giroux (14), Ridly Greig (7)4–1
- P118:04Boone Jenner Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Adam Fantilli (10), Zach Werenski (22)3–1
- P114:55Tim Stützle Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (16), Dylan Cozens (13)3–0
- P18:11Drake Batherson Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: David Perron (11), Dylan Cozens (12)2–0
- P16:58David Perron Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Dylan Cozens (11), Drake Batherson (15)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:58David Perron Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Dylan Cozens (11), Drake Batherson (15)OTT 1 – 0 CBJ · OTT 54% → 69% +15OTT 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P18:11Drake Batherson Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: David Perron (11), Dylan Cozens (12)OTT 2 – 0 CBJ · OTT 69% → 81% +12OTT 69% → 81%+12 pts
- P114:55Tim Stützle Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (16), Dylan Cozens (13)OTT 3 – 0 CBJ · OTT 83% → 91% +9OTT 83% → 91%+9 pts
- P28:10Dmitri Voronkov Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Marchenko (16), Zach Werenski (23)OTT 4 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 14% → 28% +14CBJ 14% → 28%+14 pts
- P217:59Tim Stützle Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Michael Amadio (6), Artem Zub (9)OTT 5 – 3 CBJ · OTT 75% → 90% +15OTT 75% → 90%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 54%
- ML OTT -130 / CBJ +110
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- OTT: Elo 48.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- OTT -119
- CBJ +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.4 – 3.1 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −18 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.45 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +10 Elo | CBJ 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 51.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.426th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.424th of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.5% | Shot share | 49.2%20th of 32 |
| 30th of 3287.7% | Save percentage | 89.7%17th of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 17th of 327–8 | Road vs home | 6–619th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 15112nd of 32 |
| 14th of 321494 | Elo rating | 148522nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–19 | 15–15 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–17 | 1–8 |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 14–7 |
| Overs–unders | 18–11 | 15–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 4–2 CBJ in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.