Ottawa Senators at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Dylan CozensGoals1
- Dylan CozensAssists1
- Dylan CozensPoints2
Wild- Tyler PitlickGoals1
- Marcus JohanssonAssists2
- Marcus JohanssonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:36Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (14)2–3
- P35:45Dylan Cozens Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (9), Tim Stützle (15)2–2
- P219:37Tim Stützle Goal (15) Poke, assists: Dylan Cozens (14), Drake Batherson (17)1–2
- P216:02Ryan Hartman Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (13), Danila Yurov (5)0–2
- P23:54Tyler Pitlick Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Jared Spurgeon (6), Nico Sturm (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:54Tyler Pitlick Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Jared Spurgeon (6), Nico Sturm (3)OTT 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 52% → 70% +18MIN 52% → 70%+18 pts
- P216:02Ryan Hartman Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (13), Danila Yurov (5)OTT 0 – 2 MIN · MIN 73% → 88% +15MIN 73% → 88%+15 pts
- P219:37Tim Stützle Goal (15) Poke, assists: Dylan Cozens (14), Drake Batherson (17)OTT 1 – 2 MIN · OTT 10% → 26% +16OTT 10% → 26%+16 pts
- P35:45Dylan Cozens Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (9), Tim Stützle (15)OTT 2 – 2 MIN · OTT 22% → 49% +27OTT 22% → 49%+27 pts
- P319:36Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (14)OTT 2 – 3 MIN · MIN 50% → >99% +50MIN 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 52%
- ML OTT +100 / MIN -120
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 58.0%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -109
- OTT +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.7 – 2.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +13 | OTT: Leevi Merilainen: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.32 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +56 Elo | MIN 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.77th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.27th of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.5% | Shot share | 48.6%21st of 32 |
| 32nd of 3287.7% | Save percentage | 91.8%2nd of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 14th of 328–8 | Road vs home | 9–710th of 32 |
| 21st of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 149623rd of 32 |
| 15th of 321499 | Elo rating | 151112th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–19 | 18–13 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–17 | 4–10 |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 14–3 |
| Overs–unders | 19–11 | 14–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 3–1 MIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.