Dallas Stars at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Miro HeiskanenGoals1
- Miro HeiskanenAssists1
- Miro HeiskanenPoints2
Wild- Marcus JohanssonGoals2
- Matt BoldyAssists2
- Matt BoldyPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:10Marcus Johansson Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (10), Jared Spurgeon (5)2–5
- P318:29Matt Boldy Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (16)2–4
- P38:40Marcus Johansson Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (18), Joel Eriksson Ek (15)2–3
- P217:30Zach Bogosian Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Zeev Buium (11), Vladimir Tarasenko (9)2–2
- P210:19Miro Heiskanen Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Esa Lindell (8), Radek Faksa (10)2–1
- P116:10Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (17)1–1
- P19:32Jason Robertson Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (22), Wyatt Johnston (21)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:32Jason Robertson Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (22), Wyatt Johnston (21)DAL 1 – 0 MIN · DAL 54% → 69% +15DAL 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P116:10Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (17)DAL 1 – 1 MIN · MIN 30% → 46% +16MIN 30% → 46%+16 pts
- P210:19Miro Heiskanen Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Esa Lindell (8), Radek Faksa (10)DAL 2 – 1 MIN · DAL 53% → 72% +19DAL 53% → 72%+19 pts
- P217:30Zach Bogosian Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Zeev Buium (11), Vladimir Tarasenko (9)DAL 2 – 2 MIN · MIN 25% → 47% +22MIN 25% → 47%+22 pts
- P38:40Marcus Johansson Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (18), Joel Eriksson Ek (15)DAL 2 – 3 MIN · MIN 48% → 79% +30MIN 48% → 79%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 54%
- ML DAL -130 / MIN +110
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- DAL: Elo 53.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -119
- MIN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.9 – 2.6 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −2 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +26 Elo | DAL 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 50.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.824th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 2.77th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+0.9 | Margin | +0.112th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.0% | Shot share | 48.2%21st of 32 |
| 5th of 3291.3% | Save percentage | 91.8%2nd of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 1st of 3211–5 | Road vs home | 8–715th of 32 |
| 19th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 149426th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321563 | Elo rating | 150613th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–18 | 17–13 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–18 | 4–10 |
| Underdog | 8–0 | 13–3 |
| Overs–unders | 14–17 | 13–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 6–2 MIN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.