Columbus Blue Jackets at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Mason MarchmentGoals2
- Damon SeversonAssists2
- Mason MarchmentPoints2
Kings- Andrei KuzmenkoGoals1
- Drew DoughtyAssists1
- Andrei KuzmenkoPoints1
Scoring summary
- P314:16Kirill Marchenko Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Denton Mateychuk (8), Adam Fantilli (11)3–1
- P218:41Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikey Anderson (6), Drew Doughty (9)2–1
- P119:36Mason Marchment Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Damon Severson (10), Boone Jenner (10)2–0
- P14:07Mason Marchment Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Damon Severson (9), Dmitri Voronkov (11)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:07Mason Marchment Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Damon Severson (9), Dmitri Voronkov (11)CBJ 1 – 0 LA · CBJ 41% → 56% +15CBJ 41% → 56%+15 pts
- P119:36Mason Marchment Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Damon Severson (10), Boone Jenner (10)CBJ 2 – 0 LA · CBJ 60% → 76% +16CBJ 60% → 76%+16 pts
- P218:41Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikey Anderson (6), Drew Doughty (9)CBJ 2 – 1 LA · LA 14% → 32% +18LA 14% → 32%+18 pts
- P314:16Kirill Marchenko Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Denton Mateychuk (8), Adam Fantilli (11)CBJ 3 – 1 LA · CBJ 87% → 99% +12CBJ 87% → 99%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- LA 59%
- ML CBJ +136 / LA -162
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- LA: Elo 59.1%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- LA -146
- CBJ +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.5 – 3.0 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −6 | CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · LA: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +64 Elo | LA 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 58.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.629th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 2.65th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.116th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 51.2%11th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 91.1%6th of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 27th of 327–12 | Road vs home | 4–1030th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321508 | Opponent Elo | 149819th of 32 |
| 27th of 321473 | Elo rating | 151511th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–18 | 14–20 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–9 | 4–17 |
| Underdog | 16–9 | 10–3 |
| Overs–unders | 19–16 | 13–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 1–3 LA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.