Minnesota Wild at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Matt BoldyGoals1
- Matt BoldyAssists2
- Kirill KaprizovPoints3
Blue Jackets- Zach WerenskiGoals2
- Cole SillingerAssists1
- Zach WerenskiPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:46Matt Boldy Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (19)5–2
- P318:08Kirill Kaprizov Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (21), Joel Eriksson Ek (18)4–2
- P311:50Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Yakov Trenin (8), Matt Boldy (20)3–2
- P217:39Zach Werenski Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–2
- P216:15Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Yakov Trenin (7), Danila Yurov (8)2–1
- P213:30Ryan Hartman Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (18), Brock Faber (13)1–1
- P115:20Zach Werenski Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (16), Cole Sillinger (12)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:20Zach Werenski Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (16), Cole Sillinger (12)MIN 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 50% → 66% +16CBJ 50% → 66%+16 pts
- P213:30Ryan Hartman Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (18), Brock Faber (13)MIN 1 – 1 CBJ · MIN 29% → 50% +21MIN 29% → 50%+21 pts
- P216:15Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Yakov Trenin (7), Danila Yurov (8)MIN 2 – 1 CBJ · MIN 50% → 72% +22MIN 50% → 72%+22 pts
- P217:39Zach Werenski Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: noneMIN 2 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 27% → 50% +22CBJ 27% → 50%+22 pts
- P311:50Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Yakov Trenin (8), Matt Boldy (20)MIN 3 – 2 CBJ · MIN 50% → 84% +34MIN 50% → 84%+34 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 50%
- ML MIN -112 / CBJ -108
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 51.9%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- MIN -102
- CBJ +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.3 – 3.2 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +13 | +8 | MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.32 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +14 Elo | MIN 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 52.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.529th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.527th of 32 |
| 21st of 3248.6% | Shot share | 49.3%17th of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.1% | Save percentage | 89.4%22nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 11th of 328–7 | Road vs home | 7–821st of 32 |
| 23rd of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 15093rd of 32 |
| 10th of 321523 | Elo rating | 148022nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–14 | 16–17 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–11 | 1–9 |
| Underdog | 14–3 | 15–8 |
| Overs–unders | 15–19 | 17–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–2 CBJ in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.