Boston Bruins at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Alex SteevesGoals1
- Fraser MintenAssists1
- Andrew PeekePoints1
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals2
- Ryan HartmanAssists2
- Kirill KaprizovPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:59Andrew Peeke Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Kuraly (7), Tanner Jeannot (11)2–6
- P314:55Kirill Kaprizov Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (6), Daemon Hunt (2)1–6
- P310:58Alex Steeves Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Fraser Minten (6), Michael Eyssimont (8)1–5
- P38:08Matt Boldy Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (17)0–5
- P30:54Quinn Hughes Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (5), Nicolas Aube-Kubel (1)0–4
- P212:57Ryan Hartman Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Faber (11)0–3
- P28:49Kirill Kaprizov Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Matt Boldy (19), Joel Eriksson Ek (16)0–2
- P110:11Jared Spurgeon Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Faber (10), Marcus Johansson (15)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:11Jared Spurgeon Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Faber (10), Marcus Johansson (15)BOS 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 54% → 69% +15MIN 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P28:49Kirill Kaprizov Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Matt Boldy (19), Joel Eriksson Ek (16)BOS 0 – 2 MIN · MIN 72% → 86% +14MIN 72% → 86%+14 pts
- P212:57Ryan Hartman Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Faber (11)BOS 0 – 3 MIN · MIN 88% → 96% +8MIN 88% → 96%+8 pts
- P30:54Quinn Hughes Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (5), Nicolas Aube-Kubel (1)BOS 0 – 4 MIN · MIN 98% → >99% +2MIN 98% → >99%+2 pts
- P38:08Matt Boldy Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (17)BOS 0 – 5 MIN · MIN >99% → >99% +0MIN >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 54%
- ML BOS +110 / MIN -130
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 51.4%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -119
- BOS +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.6 – 2.9 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −2 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +10 Elo | MIN 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.75th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.36th of 32 |
| 29th of 3246.7% | Shot share | 48.4%21st of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 91.9%2nd of 32 |
| 1st of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 32 |
| 14th of 328–8 | Road vs home | 10–76th of 32 |
| 7th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 149624th of 32 |
| 14th of 321500 | Elo rating | 151312th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–8 | 18–14 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 4–11 |
| Underdog | 23–5 | 14–3 |
| Overs–unders | 18–14 | 14–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 1–3 MIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.