Washington Capitals at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals
Wild- Vladimir TarasenkoGoals2
- Danila YurovAssists2
- Vladimir TarasenkoPoints3
Scoring summary
- P314:12Matt Boldy Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Kiersted (1)0–5
- P38:53Danila Yurov Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (11)0–4
- P34:23Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Danila Yurov (7)0–3
- P212:51Kirill Kaprizov Goal (21) Backhand, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (17), Quinn Hughes (22)0–2
- P12:09Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Danila Yurov (6), Brock Faber (12)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:09Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Danila Yurov (6), Brock Faber (12)WSH 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 51% → 65% +14MIN 51% → 65%+14 pts
- P212:51Kirill Kaprizov Goal (21) Backhand, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (17), Quinn Hughes (22)WSH 0 – 2 MIN · MIN 71% → 87% +15MIN 71% → 87%+15 pts
- P34:23Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Danila Yurov (7)WSH 0 – 3 MIN · MIN 93% → 98% +6MIN 93% → 98%+6 pts
- P38:53Danila Yurov Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (11)WSH 0 – 4 MIN · MIN >99% → >99% +0MIN >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P314:12Matt Boldy Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Kiersted (1)WSH 0 – 5 MIN · MIN >99% → >99% +0MIN >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 51%
- ML WSH -105 / MIN -115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 53.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -104
- WSH +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.7 – 2.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −13 | −1 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.32 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +26 Elo | MIN 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 2.63rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.7 | Margin | +0.46th of 32 |
| 7th of 3251.8% | Shot share | 48.4%21st of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.3% | Save percentage | 91.9%2nd of 32 |
| 1st of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 32 |
| 12th of 328–7 | Road vs home | 11–76th of 32 |
| 10th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 149624th of 32 |
| 7th of 321539 | Elo rating | 151811th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–13 | 19–14 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–12 | 5–11 |
| Underdog | 8–1 | 14–3 |
| Overs–unders | 15–17 | 15–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 2–3 MIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.