Anaheim Ducks at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Mikael GranlundGoals1
- Ryan PoehlingAssists2
- Mikael GranlundPoints2
Blue Jackets- Zach WerenskiGoals2
- Kent JohnsonAssists2
- Zach WerenskiPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT3:32Adam Fantilli Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Kent Johnson (7), Zach Werenski (25)3–4
- P316:44Jackson LaCombe Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (10), Mikael Granlund (7)3–3
- P25:29Mikael Granlund Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Frank Vatrano (2)2–3
- P24:18Boone Jenner Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Ivan Provorov (8)1–3
- P23:59Zach Werenski Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Brendan Gaunce (3), Kent Johnson (6)1–2
- P23:35Ryan Strome Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (9), Ian Moore (3)1–1
- P18:21Zach Werenski Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Boone Jenner (9), Yegor Chinakhov (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:21Zach Werenski Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Boone Jenner (9), Yegor Chinakhov (3)ANA 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 56% → 71% +15CBJ 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P23:35Ryan Strome Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (9), Ian Moore (3)ANA 1 – 1 CBJ · ANA 28% → 45% +17ANA 28% → 45%+17 pts
- P23:59Zach Werenski Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Brendan Gaunce (3), Kent Johnson (6)ANA 1 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 55% → 72% +17CBJ 55% → 72%+17 pts
- P316:44Jackson LaCombe Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (10), Mikael Granlund (7)ANA 3 – 3 CBJ · ANA 5% → 49% +43ANA 5% → 49%+43 pts
- OT3:32Adam Fantilli Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Kent Johnson (7), Zach Werenski (25)ANA 3 – 4 CBJ · CBJ 51% → >99% +48CBJ 51% → >99%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 56%
- ML ANA +120 / CBJ -142
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- CBJ: Elo 60.1%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -129
- ANA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.1 – 3.4 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | ANA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +9 | ANA: Ville Husso: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +71 Elo | CBJ 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 58.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.529th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.528th of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.4% | Shot share | 49.3%18th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 89.4%19th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 2–831st of 32 |
| 14th of 329–9 | Road vs home | 6–825th of 32 |
| 18th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 15102nd of 32 |
| 21st of 321486 | Elo rating | 147823rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–15 | 16–16 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–7 | 1–8 |
| Underdog | 16–8 | 15–8 |
| Overs–unders | 20–13 | 16–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 3–1 CBJ in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.