Anaheim Ducks at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Troy TerryGoals1
- Troy TerryAssists1
- Troy TerryPoints2
Islanders- Anders LeeGoals2
- Anders LeeAssists2
- Anders LeePoints4
Scoring summary
- P314:46Ryan Pulock Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (7), Anders Lee (12)2–5
- P36:06Simon Holmstrom Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Anders Lee (11), Adam Pelech (3)2–4
- P32:37Troy Terry Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (6), Jackson LaCombe (14)2–3
- P25:34Leo Carlsson Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (24), Olen Zellweger (8)1–3
- P119:06Anders Lee Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Tony DeAngelo (12), Mathew Barzal (15)0–3
- P110:16Anders Lee Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Tony DeAngelo (11), Simon Holmstrom (7)0–2
- P18:18Travis Mitchell Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (6), Scott Mayfield (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:18Travis Mitchell Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (6), Scott Mayfield (4)ANA 0 – 1 NYI · NYI 51% → 66% +15NYI 51% → 66%+15 pts
- P110:16Anders Lee Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Tony DeAngelo (11), Simon Holmstrom (7)ANA 0 – 2 NYI · NYI 66% → 80% +13NYI 66% → 80%+13 pts
- P119:06Anders Lee Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Tony DeAngelo (12), Mathew Barzal (15)ANA 0 – 3 NYI · NYI 82% → 91% +9NYI 82% → 91%+9 pts
- P32:37Troy Terry Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (6), Jackson LaCombe (14)ANA 2 – 3 NYI · ANA 9% → 24% +16ANA 9% → 24%+16 pts
- P36:06Simon Holmstrom Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Anders Lee (11), Adam Pelech (3)ANA 2 – 4 NYI · NYI 78% → 94% +16NYI 78% → 94%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 51%
- ML ANA -105 / NYI -115
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- NYI: Elo 55.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NYI -104
- ANA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.2 – 3.3 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +4 | ANA: Ville Husso: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · NYI: David Rittich: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +39 Elo | NYI 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.7 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.113th of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.4% | Shot share | 50.8%13th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 90.7%8th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 32 |
| 12th of 328–7 | Road vs home | 8–819th of 32 |
| 17th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 15131st of 32 |
| 19th of 321488 | Elo rating | 148620th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–13 | 15–16 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–7 | 1–10 |
| Underdog | 15–6 | 14–6 |
| Overs–unders | 19–11 | 15–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 2–2 NYI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.