Vegas Golden Knights at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Mitch MarnerGoals1
- Mark StoneAssists2
- Mitch MarnerPoints2
Islanders- Bo HorvatGoals2
- Anthony DuclairAssists1
- Bo HorvatPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Emil Heineman Goal Wrist Shot0–1
- P319:46Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (23), Mark Stone (18)4–4
- P310:15Bo Horvat Goal (19) Slap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (14), Max Shabanov (7)3–4
- P31:27Ivan Barbashev Goal (11) Poke, assists: Braeden Bowman (5), Jack Eichel (26)3–3
- P213:30Simon Holmstrom Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Calum Ritchie (3), Anthony Duclair (6)2–3
- P23:56Marc Gatcomb Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Casey Cizikas (5), Kyle MacLean (2)2–2
- P119:33Bo Horvat Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan Pulock (15), Matthew Schaefer (14)2–1
- P116:01Mitch Marner Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Kaedan Korczak (2), Mark Stone (17)2–0
- P112:02Noah Hanifin Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (25), Shea Theodore (15)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:56Marc Gatcomb Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Casey Cizikas (5), Kyle MacLean (2)VGK 2 – 2 NYI · NYI 26% → 44% +17NYI 26% → 44%+17 pts
- P213:30Simon Holmstrom Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Calum Ritchie (3), Anthony Duclair (6)VGK 2 – 3 NYI · NYI 44% → 66% +21NYI 44% → 66%+21 pts
- P31:27Ivan Barbashev Goal (11) Poke, assists: Braeden Bowman (5), Jack Eichel (26)VGK 3 – 3 NYI · VGK 29% → 55% +25VGK 29% → 55%+25 pts
- P310:15Bo Horvat Goal (19) Slap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (14), Max Shabanov (7)VGK 3 – 4 NYI · NYI 47% → 79% +33NYI 47% → 79%+33 pts
- P319:46Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (23), Mark Stone (18)VGK 4 – 4 NYI · VGK <1% → 51% +51VGK <1% → 51%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 58%
- ML VGK -155 / NYI +130
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- VGK: Elo 51.9%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- VGK -140
- NYI +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.0 – 2.5 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +2 | VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +13 Elo | VGK 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 54.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 32 |
| 11th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.115th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.3% | Shot share | 51.1%12th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 90.8%8th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 32 |
| 12th of 327–6 | Road vs home | 7–821st of 32 |
| 19th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 15121st of 32 |
| 10th of 321528 | Elo rating | 148424th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–20 | 14–16 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–19 | 1–10 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 13–6 |
| Overs–unders | 14–14 | 14–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 2–3 NYI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.