Anaheim Ducks at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Troy TerryGoals1
- Leo CarlssonAssists1
- Troy TerryPoints1
Devils- Stefan NoesenGoals1
- Juho LammikkoAssists2
- Juho LammikkoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:00Connor Brown Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Ondrej Palat (5)1–4
- P217:04Cody Glass Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Ondrej Palat (4), Colton White (3)1–3
- P25:52Paul Cotter Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Juho Lammikko (2), Colton White (2)1–2
- P116:09Stefan Noesen Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Juho Lammikko (1), Jesper Bratt (22)1–1
- P113:18Troy Terry Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (23)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:18Troy Terry Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (23)ANA 1 – 0 NJ · ANA 50% → 66% +16ANA 50% → 66%+16 pts
- P116:09Stefan Noesen Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Juho Lammikko (1), Jesper Bratt (22)ANA 1 – 1 NJ · NJ 33% → 50% +17NJ 33% → 50%+17 pts
- P25:52Paul Cotter Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Juho Lammikko (2), Colton White (2)ANA 1 – 2 NJ · NJ 50% → 69% +19NJ 50% → 69%+19 pts
- P217:04Cody Glass Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Ondrej Palat (4), Colton White (3)ANA 1 – 3 NJ · NJ 72% → 88% +16NJ 72% → 88%+16 pts
- P318:00Connor Brown Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Ondrej Palat (5)ANA 1 – 4 NJ · NJ >99% → >99% +0NJ >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 50%
- ML ANA -110 / NJ -110
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- NJ: Elo 54.1%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- NJ -100
- ANA -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.3 – 3.3 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | 0 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +29 Elo | NJ 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 57.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.022nd of 32 |
| 24th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.322nd of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.2% | Shot share | 50.9%13th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 89.2%23rd of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 14th of 328–8 | Road vs home | 9–66th of 32 |
| 16th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 15076th of 32 |
| 20th of 321484 | Elo rating | 148719th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–14 | 11–20 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 2–7 | 3–15 |
| Underdog | 15–7 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 20–11 | 16–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 4–1 NJ in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.