Tampa Bay Lightning at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Oliver BjorkstrandGoals2
- Nikita KucherovAssists4
- Nikita KucherovPoints4
Devils- Paul CotterGoals1
- Simon NemecAssists2
- Paul CotterPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:57Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (17), Nikita Kucherov (27)8–4
- P315:28Paul Cotter Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Cody Glass (2), Luke Hughes (15)7–4
- P37:55Brayden Point Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (26), J.J. Moser (8)7–3
- P33:13Angus Crookshank Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton White (1), Simon Nemec (11)6–3
- P216:35Brandon Hagel Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (25), Declan Carlile (1)6–2
- P213:12Jesper Bratt Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Nemec (10), Stefan Noesen (3)5–2
- P26:19Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (16), Brayden Point (10)5–1
- P115:00Jake Guentzel Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (9), Darren Raddysh (16)4–1
- P17:56Pontus Holmberg Goal (3) Backhand, assists: J.J. Moser (7), Yanni Gourde (6)3–1
- P17:00Luke Hughes Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Brenden Dillon (7), Paul Cotter (5)2–1
- P13:48Darren Raddysh Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (24), Brandon Hagel (13)2–0
- P12:57Nick Paul Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Scott Sabourin (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:57Nick Paul Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Scott Sabourin (2)TB 1 – 0 NJ · TB 55% → 69% +14TB 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P13:48Darren Raddysh Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (24), Brandon Hagel (13)TB 2 – 0 NJ · TB 69% → 81% +12TB 69% → 81%+12 pts
- P17:00Luke Hughes Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Brenden Dillon (7), Paul Cotter (5)TB 2 – 1 NJ · NJ 18% → 31% +12NJ 18% → 31%+12 pts
- P17:56Pontus Holmberg Goal (3) Backhand, assists: J.J. Moser (7), Yanni Gourde (6)TB 3 – 1 NJ · TB 70% → 82% +12TB 70% → 82%+12 pts
- P115:00Jake Guentzel Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (9), Darren Raddysh (16)TB 4 – 1 NJ · TB 83% → 92% +9TB 83% → 92%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TB 55%
- ML TB -135 / NJ +114
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- TB: Elo 51.8%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -123
- NJ +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 2.9 – 2.6 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | −1 | TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +13 Elo | TB 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 50.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.6 | Margin | −0.120th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.2% | Shot share | 50.8%12th of 32 |
| 6th of 3291.2% | Save percentage | 89.7%18th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 5th of 329–6 | Road vs home | 9–55th of 32 |
| 9th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 15066th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321546 | Elo rating | 149217th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–17 | 11–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 5–17 | 3–15 |
| Underdog | 8–0 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 14–16 | 15–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 6–2 NJ in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.