Anaheim Ducks at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Cutter GauthierGoals2
- Ryan PoehlingAssists2
- Cutter GauthierPoints2
Rangers- Matthew RobertsonGoals1
- Alexis LafreniereAssists1
- Matthew RobertsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:57Pavel Mintyukov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (8), Ross Johnston (6)4–1
- P319:38Cutter Gauthier Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (24), Alex Killorn (8)3–1
- P35:51Cutter Gauthier Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (17), Olen Zellweger (9)2–1
- P216:18Matthew Robertson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (23), Alexis Lafrenière (11)1–1
- P27:18Jackson LaCombe Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (7), Jacob Trouba (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:18Jackson LaCombe Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (7), Jacob Trouba (10)ANA 1 – 0 NYR · ANA 50% → 69% +19ANA 50% → 69%+19 pts
- P216:18Matthew Robertson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (23), Alexis Lafrenière (11)ANA 1 – 1 NYR · NYR 28% → 50% +22NYR 28% → 50%+22 pts
- P35:51Cutter Gauthier Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (17), Olen Zellweger (9)ANA 2 – 1 NYR · ANA 50% → 77% +27ANA 50% → 77%+27 pts
- P319:38Cutter Gauthier Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (24), Alex Killorn (8)ANA 3 – 1 NYR · ANA >99% → 100% +0ANA >99% → 100%+0 pts
- P319:57Pavel Mintyukov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (8), Ross Johnston (6)ANA 4 – 1 NYR · ANA 100% → 100% +0ANA 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 50%
- ML ANA -108 / NYR -112
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.6 pts
- NYR: Elo 58.0%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- NYR -102
- ANA +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.2 – 3.3 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | 0 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +56 Elo | NYR 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.6 | Goals scored | 2.729th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.2 | Margin | 0.015th of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.4% | Shot share | 48.0%24th of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 91.5%3rd of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 16th of 328–9 | Road vs home | 4–1131st of 32 |
| 18th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 15058th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321480 | Elo rating | 150913th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–15 | 18–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–7 | 5–12 |
| Underdog | 15–8 | 13–3 |
| Overs–unders | 20–12 | 12–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 1–3 NYR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.