Vegas Golden Knights at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Ben HuttonGoals1
- Mitch MarnerAssists3
- Mitch MarnerPoints3
Blue Jackets- Charlie CoyleGoals1
- Zach WerenskiAssists1
- Charlie CoylePoints1
Scoring summary
- P313:13Brayden McNabb Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (26), Shea Theodore (16)3–2
- P35:52Ben Hutton Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (25), Kaedan Korczak (3)2–2
- P34:49Yegor Chinakhov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Dante Fabbro (4), Kent Johnson (5)1–2
- P20:41Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (24), Jack Eichel (29)1–1
- P17:02Charlie Coyle Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (24), Cole Sillinger (11)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:02Charlie Coyle Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (24), Cole Sillinger (11)VGK 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 44% → 59% +15CBJ 44% → 59%+15 pts
- P20:41Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (24), Jack Eichel (29)VGK 1 – 1 CBJ · VGK 37% → 55% +18VGK 37% → 55%+18 pts
- P34:49Yegor Chinakhov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Dante Fabbro (4), Kent Johnson (5)VGK 1 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 47% → 74% +27CBJ 47% → 74%+27 pts
- P35:52Ben Hutton Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (25), Kaedan Korczak (3)VGK 2 – 2 CBJ · VGK 25% → 53% +28VGK 25% → 53%+28 pts
- P313:13Brayden McNabb Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (26), Shea Theodore (16)VGK 3 – 2 CBJ · VGK 52% → 87% +35VGK 52% → 87%+35 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 56%
- ML VGK -142 / CBJ +120
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- VGK: Elo 50.7%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- VGK -129
- CBJ +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.4 – 3.1 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +10 | VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) · CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +5 Elo | VGK 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 32 |
| 11th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.529th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.528th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.4% | Shot share | 49.1%19th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 89.5%19th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 12th of 328–7 | Road vs home | 6–724th of 32 |
| 20th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 15102nd of 32 |
| 8th of 321528 | Elo rating | 148021st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–22 | 15–16 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–21 | 1–8 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders | 15–15 | 16–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 2–2 CBJ in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.