Vegas Golden Knights at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Mark StoneGoals2
- Jack EichelAssists2
- Mark StonePoints2
Flyers- Noah JuulsenGoals1
- Christian DvorakAssists2
- Christian DvorakPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:47Mark Stone Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (28)3–2
- P216:08Noah Juulsen Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (14), Carl Grundstrom (1)2–2
- P212:53Mark Stone Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (8), Jack Eichel (27)2–1
- P116:11Trevor Zegras Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Sanheim (11), Christian Dvorak (13)1–1
- P16:07Zach Whitecloud Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Ivan Barbashev (14), Braeden Bowman (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:07Zach Whitecloud Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Ivan Barbashev (14), Braeden Bowman (6)VGK 1 – 0 PHI · VGK 59% → 73% +14VGK 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P116:11Trevor Zegras Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Sanheim (11), Christian Dvorak (13)VGK 1 – 1 PHI · PHI 26% → 42% +16PHI 26% → 42%+16 pts
- P212:53Mark Stone Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (8), Jack Eichel (27)VGK 2 – 1 PHI · VGK 56% → 76% +20VGK 56% → 76%+20 pts
- P216:08Noah Juulsen Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (14), Carl Grundstrom (1)VGK 2 – 2 PHI · PHI 23% → 44% +21PHI 23% → 44%+21 pts
- OT2:47Mark Stone Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (28)VGK 3 – 2 PHI · VGK 52% → 97% +46VGK 52% → 97%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 59%
- ML VGK -162 / PHI +136
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.3 pts
- VGK: Elo 51.0%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- VGK -146
- PHI +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.0 – 2.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +7 | VGK: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +7 Elo | VGK 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 57.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.017th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.37th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.4% | Shot share | 49.4%17th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 89.6%19th of 32 |
| 11th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 15th of 327–7 | Road vs home | 10–78th of 32 |
| 20th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 32 |
| 10th of 321526 | Elo rating | 147926th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–21 | 18–10 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–20 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 15–4 |
| Overs–unders | 15–14 | 15–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 3–1 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.