Calgary Flames at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Blake ColemanGoals1
- Jonathan HuberdeauAssists1
- Blake ColemanPoints1
Kings- Adrian KempeGoals1
- Joel EdmundsonAssists1
- Adrian KempePoints1
Scoring summary
- OT1:06Morgan Frost Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (10)2–1
- P26:41Blake Coleman Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: none1–1
- P111:10Adrian Kempe Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (7), Joel Edmundson (11)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:10Adrian Kempe Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (7), Joel Edmundson (11)CGY 0 – 1 LA · LA 60% → 74% +14LA 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P26:41Blake Coleman Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: noneCGY 1 – 1 LA · CGY 24% → 42% +18CGY 24% → 42%+18 pts
- OT1:06Morgan Frost Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (10)CGY 2 – 1 LA · CGY 47% → 91% +44CGY 47% → 91%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- LA 61%
- ML CGY +145 / LA -175
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- LA: Elo 60.7%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- LA -156
- CGY +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.4 – 3.1 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +7 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +75 Elo | LA 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 63.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 62.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.75th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.114th of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 52.1%6th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 90.8%8th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 32 |
| 31st of 325–13 | Road vs home | 4–930th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 149426th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321479 | Elo rating | 152011th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–12 | 12–18 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | 4–16 |
| Underdog | 16–10 | 8–2 |
| Overs–unders | 20–12 | 13–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 5–2 LA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.