Los Angeles Kings at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Andrei KuzmenkoGoals1
- Andrei KuzmenkoPoints1
Stars- Matt DucheneGoals1
- Matt DucheneAssists1
- Matt DuchenePoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:28Wyatt Johnston Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (2)1–4
- P316:11Mikko Rantanen Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Harley (10)1–3
- P36:12Oskar Bäck Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Radek Faksa (11), Colin Blackwell (5)1–2
- P215:42Matt Duchene Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (30), Wyatt Johnston (22)1–1
- P211:03Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P211:03Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: noneLA 1 – 0 DAL · LA 46% → 67% +20LA 46% → 67%+20 pts
- P215:42Matt Duchene Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (30), Wyatt Johnston (22)LA 1 – 1 DAL · DAL 31% → 53% +22DAL 31% → 53%+22 pts
- P36:12Oskar Bäck Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Radek Faksa (11), Colin Blackwell (5)LA 1 – 2 DAL · DAL 52% → 79% +27DAL 52% → 79%+27 pts
- P316:11Mikko Rantanen Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Harley (10)LA 1 – 3 DAL · DAL 93% → >99% +7DAL 93% → >99%+7 pts
- P319:28Wyatt Johnston Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (2)LA 1 – 4 DAL · DAL >99% → 100% +0DAL >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 55%
- ML LA +114 / DAL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- DAL: Elo 59.2%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- DAL -123
- LA +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.6 – 2.9 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +2 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +64 Elo | DAL 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 59.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.44th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 32 |
| 15th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.73rd of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.6% | Shot share | 47.4%28th of 32 |
| 6th of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 91.1%5th of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 32 |
| 6th of 3210–7 | Road vs home | 10–65th of 32 |
| 26th of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 32 |
| 12th of 321517 | Elo rating | 15512nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–19 | 13–20 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–17 | 5–20 |
| Underdog | 8–2 | 8–0 |
| Overs–unders | 13–18 | 15–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 3–4 DAL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.