Florida Panthers at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Brad MarchandGoals2
- Sam ReinhartAssists2
- Brad MarchandPoints3
StarsScoring summary
- P317:12Brad Marchand Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (16)4–0
- P219:45Brad Marchand Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (15), Seth Jones (13)3–0
- P25:45Sam Bennett Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (15), Brad Marchand (16)2–0
- P20:19Anton Lundell Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (10), Sam Reinhart (14)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:19Anton Lundell Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (10), Sam Reinhart (14)FLA 1 – 0 DAL · FLA 45% → 63% +18FLA 45% → 63%+18 pts
- P25:45Sam Bennett Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (15), Brad Marchand (16)FLA 2 – 0 DAL · FLA 64% → 80% +16FLA 64% → 80%+16 pts
- P219:45Brad Marchand Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (15), Seth Jones (13)FLA 3 – 0 DAL · FLA 88% → 96% +9FLA 88% → 96%+9 pts
- P317:12Brad Marchand Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (16)FLA 4 – 0 DAL · FLA >99% → >99% +0FLA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 56%
- ML FLA +120 / DAL -142
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- DAL: Elo 57.1%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -129
- FLA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.6 – 2.9 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +1 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +50 Elo | DAL 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 57.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.53rd of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.74th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.82nd of 32 |
| 5th of 3252.3% | Shot share | 47.6%27th of 32 |
| 25th of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 91.2%5th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 22nd of 325–7 | Road vs home | 10–54th of 32 |
| 25th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 32 |
| 7th of 321537 | Elo rating | 15572nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–22 | 13–19 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–20 | 5–19 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 8–0 |
| Overs–unders | 16–14 | 15–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 5–0 DAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.