Florida Panthers at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Mackie SamoskevichGoals1
- Evan RodriguesAssists1
- Noah GregorPoints1
Avalanche- Nathan MacKinnonGoals1
- Martin NecasAssists2
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:08Mackie Samoskevich Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: A.J. Greer (7), Evan Rodrigues (8)2–6
- P36:18Gabriel Landeskog Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (29), Josh Manson (7)1–6
- P212:31Artturi Lehkonen Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Gavin Brindley (4), Devon Toews (10)1–5
- P27:18Nathan MacKinnon Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Samuel Girard (3), Sam Malinski (14)1–4
- P25:05Gavin Brindley Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Brent Burns (12), Josh Manson (6)1–3
- P118:30Brock Nelson Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Cale Makar (27), Valeri Nichushkin (8)1–2
- P17:21Noah Gregor Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jones (12)1–1
- P11:14Sam Malinski Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (28), Nathan MacKinnon (28)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:14Sam Malinski Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (28), Nathan MacKinnon (28)FLA 0 – 1 COL · COL 67% → 79% +12COL 67% → 79%+12 pts
- P17:21Noah Gregor Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jones (12)FLA 1 – 1 COL · FLA 21% → 34% +13FLA 21% → 34%+13 pts
- P118:30Brock Nelson Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Cale Makar (27), Valeri Nichushkin (8)FLA 1 – 2 COL · COL 65% → 79% +15COL 65% → 79%+15 pts
- P25:05Gavin Brindley Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Brent Burns (12), Josh Manson (6)FLA 1 – 3 COL · COL 80% → 90% +11COL 80% → 90%+11 pts
- P27:18Nathan MacKinnon Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Samuel Girard (3), Sam Malinski (14)FLA 1 – 4 COL · COL 91% → 97% +6COL 91% → 97%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- COL 68%
- ML FLA +195 / COL -238
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- COL: Elo 67.1%, market 67.5%
- Fair odds
- COL -208
- FLA +208 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.7 – 3.8 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1583 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | FLA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −21 | −5 | FLA: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.53 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +124 Elo | COL 67.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 70.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 69.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 67.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.91st of 32 |
| 20th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.31st of 32 |
| 17th of 320.0 | Margin | +1.61st of 32 |
| 5th of 3252.9% | Shot share | 56.1%2nd of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 91.9%1st of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 19th of 325–6 | Road vs home | 11–21st of 32 |
| 29th of 321492 | Opponent Elo | 148932nd of 32 |
| 6th of 321541 | Elo rating | 15831st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–21 | 16–14 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–20 | 15–14 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 15–14 | 12–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 2–2 COL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.