Colorado Avalanche at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Brock NelsonGoals1
- Nathan MacKinnonAssists2
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints2
Predators- Reid SchaeferGoals1
- Fedor SvechkovAssists1
- Jonathan MarchessaultPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Ryan O'Reilly Goal Snap Shot0–1
- P319:52Cale Makar Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (27), Nathan MacKinnon (27)3–3
- P312:58Brady Skjei Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Wilsby (4), Luke Evangelista (16)2–3
- P110:21Artturi Lehkonen Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (26), Nathan MacKinnon (26)2–2
- P15:30Reid Schaefer Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Fedor Svechkov (4)1–2
- P14:05Jonathan Marchessault Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (13), Filip Forsberg (10)1–1
- P11:12Brock Nelson Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Josh Manson (5), Brent Burns (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:05Jonathan Marchessault Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (13), Filip Forsberg (10)COL 1 – 1 NSH · NSH 23% → 36% +13NSH 23% → 36%+13 pts
- P15:30Reid Schaefer Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Fedor Svechkov (4)COL 1 – 2 NSH · NSH 36% → 51% +15NSH 36% → 51%+15 pts
- P110:21Artturi Lehkonen Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (26), Nathan MacKinnon (26)COL 2 – 2 NSH · COL 47% → 63% +16COL 47% → 63%+16 pts
- P312:58Brady Skjei Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Wilsby (4), Luke Evangelista (16)COL 2 – 3 NSH · NSH 45% → 83% +38NSH 45% → 83%+38 pts
- P319:52Cale Makar Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (27), Nathan MacKinnon (27)COL 3 – 3 NSH · COL <1% → 51% +51COL <1% → 51%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- COL 64%
- ML COL -205 / NSH +170
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- COL: Elo 66.5%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- COL -181
- NSH +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.7 – 2.8 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1587 | 1444 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | 0 | COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.28 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +119 Elo | COL 66.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 63.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 324.0 | Goals scored | 2.629th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 3.630th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.7 | Margin | −0.931st of 32 |
| 2nd of 3256.0% | Shot share | 49.7%16th of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.0% | Save percentage | 88.3%27th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3210–6 | Road vs home | 5–1028th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321489 | Opponent Elo | 15075th of 32 |
| 1st of 321587 | Elo rating | 144430th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–13 | 12–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 15–13 | 2–6 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 10–10 |
| Overs–unders | 11–18 | 14–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 4–4 NSH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.