Los Angeles Kings at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Adrian KempeGoals2
- Anze KopitarAssists1
- Adrian KempePoints2
Lightning- Oliver BjorkstrandGoals1
- Jake GuentzelAssists1
- Oliver BjorkstrandPoints1
Scoring summary
- P215:58Adrian Kempe Goal (13) Backhand, assists: none2–1
- P25:21Adrian Kempe Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (11), Corey Perry (8)1–1
- P112:54Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (10), Jake Guentzel (19)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:54Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (10), Jake Guentzel (19)LA 0 – 1 TB · TB 65% → 79% +14TB 65% → 79%+14 pts
- P25:21Adrian Kempe Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (11), Corey Perry (8)LA 1 – 1 TB · LA 21% → 37% +16LA 21% → 37%+16 pts
- P215:58Adrian Kempe Goal (13) Backhand, assists: noneLA 2 – 1 TB · LA 39% → 62% +23LA 39% → 62%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- TB 67%
- ML LA +190 / TB -230
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- TB: Elo 67.3%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- TB -202
- LA +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.3 – 3.2 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | LA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −9 | +19 | LA: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.48 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +125 Elo | TB 67.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 63.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.29th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.74th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.54th of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.5% | Shot share | 50.7%13th of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 90.8%8th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 14th of 3210–9 | Road vs home | 8–817th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 150310th of 32 |
| 12th of 321512 | Elo rating | 15445th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–20 | 14–19 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–17 | 6–19 |
| Underdog | 9–3 | 8–0 |
| Overs–unders | 13–20 | 16–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 2–2 TB in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.