Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Sam ReinhartGoals2
- Uvis BalinskisAssists2
- Sam ReinhartPoints2
Lightning- JJ MoserGoals1
- Brayden PointAssists2
- Brayden PointPoints2
Scoring summary
- P36:37Carter Verhaeghe Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Uvis Balinskis (6)5–2
- P32:11J.J. Moser Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Point (13), Darren Raddysh (17)4–2
- P219:27Max Crozier Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (10), Brayden Point (12)4–1
- P218:08Sam Reinhart Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (12)4–0
- P211:48Brad Marchand Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (16), Aaron Ekblad (9)3–0
- P13:48Anton Lundell Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Uvis Balinskis (5), Seth Jones (14)2–0
- P12:16Sam Reinhart Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:16Sam Reinhart Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (8)FLA 1 – 0 TB · FLA 48% → 62% +15FLA 48% → 62%+15 pts
- P13:48Anton Lundell Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Uvis Balinskis (5), Seth Jones (14)FLA 2 – 0 TB · FLA 63% → 76% +13FLA 63% → 76%+13 pts
- P211:48Brad Marchand Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (16), Aaron Ekblad (9)FLA 3 – 0 TB · FLA 85% → 94% +9FLA 85% → 94%+9 pts
- P32:11J.J. Moser Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Point (13), Darren Raddysh (17)FLA 4 – 2 TB · TB 2% → 10% +7TB 2% → 10%+7 pts
- P36:37Carter Verhaeghe Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Uvis Balinskis (6)FLA 5 – 2 TB · FLA 94% → 99% +5FLA 94% → 99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TB 52%
- ML FLA +100 / TB -120
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- TB: Elo 53.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TB -109
- FLA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.7 – 2.8 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | −7 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +25 Elo | TB 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.62nd of 32 |
| 18th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.74th of 32 |
| 5th of 3252.5% | Shot share | 50.7%14th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 91.1%6th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 20th of 326–7 | Road vs home | 8–715th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 150312th of 32 |
| 5th of 321543 | Elo rating | 15493rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–22 | 14–18 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–20 | 6–18 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 8–0 |
| Overs–unders | 16–15 | 15–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 12–6 TB in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 18.
- Nov 15TB 3 @ FLA 1Picked FLA 57%Miss
- Apr 30FLA 6 @ TB 3PlayoffsPicked FLA 51%Hit
- Apr 28TB 2 @ FLA 4PlayoffsPicked FLA 57%Hit
- Apr 26TB 5 @ FLA 1PlayoffsPicked FLA 55%Miss
- Apr 24FLA 2 @ TB 0PlayoffsPicked TB 53%Miss
- Apr 22FLA 6 @ TB 2PlayoffsPicked TB 53%Miss
- Apr 15FLA 1 @ TB 5Picked TB 66%Hit
- Mar 3TB 1 @ FLA 2Picked FLA 57%Hit