Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- JJ MoserGoals1
- Nikita KucherovAssists2
- Nikita KucherovPoints2
Islanders- Matthew SchaeferGoals1
- Anthony DuclairAssists2
- Anthony DuclairPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Emil Heineman Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Brayden Point Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Mathew Barzal Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- P33:20J.J. Moser Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (29), Brayden Point (11)2–2
- P210:13Darren Raddysh Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (28), Jake Guentzel (18)1–2
- P110:16Calum Ritchie Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Duclair (8)0–2
- P13:05Matthew Schaefer Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Duclair (7), Mathew Barzal (16)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:05Matthew Schaefer Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Duclair (7), Mathew Barzal (16)TB 0 – 1 NYI · NYI 46% → 61% +15NYI 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P110:16Calum Ritchie Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Duclair (8)TB 0 – 2 NYI · NYI 62% → 76% +14NYI 62% → 76%+14 pts
- P210:13Darren Raddysh Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (28), Jake Guentzel (18)TB 1 – 2 NYI · TB 17% → 33% +16TB 17% → 33%+16 pts
- P33:20J.J. Moser Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (29), Brayden Point (11)TB 2 – 2 NYI · TB 26% → 52% +26TB 26% → 52%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TB 54%
- ML TB -130 / NYI +110
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- TB: Elo 52.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -119
- NYI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 2.9 – 2.6 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +1 | TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +17 Elo | TB 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 2.810th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.7 | Margin | +0.210th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.2% | Shot share | 50.9%12th of 32 |
| 6th of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 90.8%7th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 5th of 3210–6 | Road vs home | 9–816th of 32 |
| 11th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 15121st of 32 |
| 3rd of 321551 | Elo rating | 149019th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–17 | 16–16 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–17 | 2–10 |
| Underdog | 8–0 | 14–6 |
| Overs–unders | 15–16 | 16–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 4–4 NYI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.