Los Angeles Kings at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Joel ArmiaGoals1
- Alex LaferriereAssists1
- Joel ArmiaPoints1
Panthers- Carter VerhaegheGoals1
- Brad MarchandAssists2
- Brad MarchandPoints2
Scoring summary
- P34:48Kevin Fiala Goal (12) Deflected, assists: none2–3
- P30:10Sam Bennett Goal (11) Deflected, assists: Brad Marchand (18)1–3
- P27:04Carter Verhaeghe Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeff Petry (7), Brad Marchand (17)1–2
- P22:14Anton Lundell Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Aaron Ekblad (10), Mackie Samoskevich (13)1–1
- P113:39Joel Armia Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Brandt Clarke (10), Alex Laferriere (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:39Joel Armia Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Brandt Clarke (10), Alex Laferriere (8)LA 1 – 0 FLA · LA 44% → 60% +16LA 44% → 60%+16 pts
- P22:14Anton Lundell Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Aaron Ekblad (10), Mackie Samoskevich (13)LA 1 – 1 FLA · FLA 38% → 56% +18FLA 38% → 56%+18 pts
- P27:04Carter Verhaeghe Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeff Petry (7), Brad Marchand (17)LA 1 – 2 FLA · FLA 55% → 73% +18FLA 55% → 73%+18 pts
- P30:10Sam Bennett Goal (11) Deflected, assists: Brad Marchand (18)LA 1 – 3 FLA · FLA 77% → 92% +15FLA 77% → 92%+15 pts
- P34:48Kevin Fiala Goal (12) Deflected, assists: noneLA 2 – 3 FLA · LA 6% → 21% +15LA 6% → 21%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 57%
- ML LA +124 / FLA -148
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- FLA: Elo 58.1%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- FLA -134
- LA +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.5 – 3.0 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −10 | −23 | LA: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · FLA: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.58 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +57 Elo | FLA 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 56.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.28th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.218th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.112th of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.6% | Shot share | 52.3%5th of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 89.3%23rd of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 10th of 3210–8 | Road vs home | 10–813th of 32 |
| 25th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 32 |
| 12th of 321514 | Elo rating | 15483rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–20 | 10–22 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–17 | 6–20 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 13–19 | 17–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 2–3 FLA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.