Columbus Blue Jackets at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Zach WerenskiGoals1
- Zach WerenskiAssists1
- Zach WerenskiPoints2
Ducks- Mikael GranlundGoals1
- Mikael GranlundAssists1
- Mikael GranlundPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:31Pavel Mintyukov Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (8), Radko Gudas (7)3–4
- P312:44Zach Werenski Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Denton Mateychuk (7), Kent Johnson (8)3–3
- P213:36Mason McTavish Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Ross Johnston (8)2–3
- P23:39Mason Marchment Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Damon Severson (8), Ivan Provorov (9)2–2
- P15:54Dmitri Voronkov Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Charlie Coyle (17), Zach Werenski (26)1–2
- P13:00Jacob Trouba Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (11), Alex Killorn (9)0–2
- P12:14Mikael Granlund Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Olen Zellweger (10), Frank Vatrano (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:14Mikael Granlund Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Olen Zellweger (10), Frank Vatrano (3)CBJ 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 53% → 67% +14ANA 53% → 67%+14 pts
- P23:39Mason Marchment Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Damon Severson (8), Ivan Provorov (9)CBJ 2 – 2 ANA · CBJ 30% → 48% +18CBJ 30% → 48%+18 pts
- P213:36Mason McTavish Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Ross Johnston (8)CBJ 2 – 3 ANA · ANA 52% → 72% +21ANA 52% → 72%+21 pts
- P312:44Zach Werenski Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Denton Mateychuk (7), Kent Johnson (8)CBJ 3 – 3 ANA · CBJ 14% → 49% +35CBJ 14% → 49%+35 pts
- P316:31Pavel Mintyukov Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (8), Radko Gudas (7)CBJ 3 – 4 ANA · ANA 51% → 94% +43ANA 51% → 94%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ducks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- ANA 53%
- ML CBJ +102 / ANA -122
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- ANA: Elo 54.7%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- ANA -111
- CBJ +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.2 – 3.3 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | ANA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −21 | +4 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.52 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +33 Elo | ANA 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 54.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ANA 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.53rd of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.428th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.19th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.4% | Shot share | 51.3%10th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 88.7%28th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 25th of 327–11 | Road vs home | 11–52nd of 32 |
| 4th of 321510 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 32 |
| 26th of 321475 | Elo rating | 147825th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–18 | 19–16 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–9 | 2–7 |
| Underdog | 15–9 | 17–9 |
| Overs–unders | 18–16 | 22–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 2–3 ANA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.