Dallas Stars at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Jason RobertsonGoals2
- Radek FaksaAssists2
- Jason RobertsonPoints3
Ducks- Mikael GranlundGoals1
- Radko GudasAssists1
- Mikael GranlundPoints1
Scoring summary
- P314:22Mikael Granlund Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (15), Troy Terry (25)8–3
- P31:42Ilya Lyubushkin Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Hryckowian (6), Esa Lindell (11)8–2
- P31:01Beckett Sennecke Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (14), Chris Kreider (9)7–2
- P218:30Adam Erne Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Radek Faksa (13), Thomas Harley (11)7–1
- P215:10Jason Robertson Goal (22) Backhand, assists: Roope Hintz (19)6–1
- P211:10Jason Robertson Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (34), Miro Heiskanen (25)5–1
- P114:19Thomas Harley Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (33)4–1
- P112:41Sam Steel Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (6), Miro Heiskanen (24)3–1
- P14:42Roope Hintz Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (21), Mavrik Bourque (7)2–1
- P13:32Ryan Poehling Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Radko Gudas (6), Ross Johnston (7)1–1
- P12:37Oskar Bäck Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Radek Faksa (12)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:37Oskar Bäck Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Radek Faksa (12)DAL 1 – 0 ANA · DAL 50% → 64% +15DAL 50% → 64%+15 pts
- P13:32Ryan Poehling Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Radko Gudas (6), Ross Johnston (7)DAL 1 – 1 ANA · ANA 36% → 50% +15ANA 36% → 50%+15 pts
- P14:42Roope Hintz Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (21), Mavrik Bourque (7)DAL 2 – 1 ANA · DAL 50% → 64% +15DAL 50% → 64%+15 pts
- P112:41Sam Steel Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (6), Miro Heiskanen (24)DAL 3 – 1 ANA · DAL 66% → 79% +14DAL 66% → 79%+14 pts
- P114:19Thomas Harley Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (33)DAL 4 – 1 ANA · DAL 80% → 89% +10DAL 80% → 89%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ducks 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- ANA 50%
- ML DAL -108 / ANA -112
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- ANA: Elo 49.5%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- ANA -102
- DAL +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.2 – 3.3 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +9 | DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +4 Elo | DAL 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 53.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ANA 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.62nd of 32 |
| 6th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.324th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+0.8 | Margin | +0.37th of 32 |
| 28th of 3247.4% | Shot share | 51.3%11th of 32 |
| 5th of 3291.3% | Save percentage | 89.3%24th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3212–6 | Road vs home | 11–42nd of 32 |
| 17th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 149721st of 32 |
| 2nd of 321558 | Elo rating | 148421st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 15–20 | 19–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–20 | 2–7 |
| Underdog | 8–0 | 17–8 |
| Overs–unders | 16–19 | 21–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 4–3 ANA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.