Dallas Stars at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Wyatt JohnstonGoals2
- Esa LindellAssists2
- Wyatt JohnstonPoints2
Sharks- Collin GrafGoals2
- Macklin CelebriniAssists2
- Collin GrafPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:42Jamie Benn Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–3
- P34:32Collin Graf Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Igor Chernyshov (2), Macklin Celebrini (35)4–3
- P219:17Justin Hryckowian Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–2
- P216:44Collin Graf Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (34)3–2
- P28:40Wyatt Johnston Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (32), Roope Hintz (18)3–1
- P21:43Shakir Mukhamadullin Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Ty Dellandrea (9)2–1
- P117:38Wyatt Johnston Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (23), Esa Lindell (10)2–0
- P112:25Roope Hintz Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (31), Esa Lindell (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:25Roope Hintz Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (31), Esa Lindell (9)DAL 1 – 0 SJ · DAL 62% → 76% +14DAL 62% → 76%+14 pts
- P28:40Wyatt Johnston Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (32), Roope Hintz (18)DAL 3 – 1 SJ · DAL 78% → 90% +12DAL 78% → 90%+12 pts
- P216:44Collin Graf Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (34)DAL 3 – 2 SJ · SJ 8% → 21% +13SJ 8% → 21%+13 pts
- P219:17Justin Hryckowian Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: noneDAL 4 – 2 SJ · DAL 80% → 93% +13DAL 80% → 93%+13 pts
- P34:32Collin Graf Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Igor Chernyshov (2), Macklin Celebrini (35)DAL 4 – 3 SJ · SJ 5% → 18% +13SJ 5% → 18%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 64%
- ML DAL -198 / SJ +164
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- DAL: Elo 63.6%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- DAL -175
- SJ +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.1 – 2.4 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1422 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +1 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · SJ: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +97 Elo | DAL 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 64.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 64.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+0.7 | Margin | −0.325th of 32 |
| 27th of 3247.5% | Shot share | 43.6%32nd of 32 |
| 5th of 3291.3% | Save percentage | 90.1%13th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3211–6 | Road vs home | 10–813th of 32 |
| 13th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 15094th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321555 | Elo rating | 142232nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–20 | 24–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–20 | — |
| Underdog | 8–0 | 24–10 |
| Overs–unders | 15–19 | 15–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 7–0 SJ in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.