Calgary Flames at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Blake ColemanGoals1
- Jonathan HuberdeauAssists1
- Blake ColemanPoints1
Sharks- Macklin CelebriniGoals2
- Macklin CelebriniAssists2
- Macklin CelebriniPoints4
Scoring summary
- P318:50Macklin Celebrini Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (17), Barclay Goodrow (3)3–6
- P313:31Nazem Kadri Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (11)3–5
- P312:53Tyler Toffoli Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (14), Alexander Wennberg (15)2–5
- P32:46Macklin Celebrini Goal (17) Deflected, assists: Collin Graf (10), Igor Chernyshov (1)2–4
- P119:41Barclay Goodrow Goal (3) Poke, assists: Macklin Celebrini (33), Ty Dellandrea (8)2–3
- P114:23Ryan Lomberg Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Klapka (4)2–2
- P111:01Blake Coleman Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (6), Connor Zary (3)1–2
- P16:00Barclay Goodrow Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Zack Ostapchuk (1), Vincent Iorio (1)0–2
- P11:02John Klingberg Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (32)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:02John Klingberg Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (32)CGY 0 – 1 SJ · SJ 42% → 56% +15SJ 42% → 56%+15 pts
- P111:01Blake Coleman Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (6), Connor Zary (3)CGY 1 – 2 SJ · CGY 27% → 42% +15CGY 27% → 42%+15 pts
- P114:23Ryan Lomberg Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Klapka (4)CGY 2 – 2 SJ · CGY 41% → 57% +17CGY 41% → 57%+17 pts
- P119:41Barclay Goodrow Goal (3) Poke, assists: Macklin Celebrini (33), Ty Dellandrea (8)CGY 2 – 3 SJ · SJ 43% → 61% +18SJ 43% → 61%+18 pts
- P32:46Macklin Celebrini Goal (17) Deflected, assists: Collin Graf (10), Igor Chernyshov (1)CGY 2 – 4 SJ · SJ 72% → 89% +18SJ 72% → 89%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flames 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CGY 58%
- ML CGY -155 / SJ +130
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- CGY: Elo 56.0%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CGY -140
- SJ +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.0 – 2.5 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1417 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | −3 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +42 Elo | CGY 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 53.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CGY 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 32 |
| 12th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.427th of 32 |
| 12th of 3251.1% | Shot share | 43.5%32nd of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 90.1%13th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 31st of 326–13 | Road vs home | 9–815th of 32 |
| 20th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 15093rd of 32 |
| 21st of 321482 | Elo rating | 141732nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–12 | 23–10 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | — |
| Underdog | 17–10 | 23–10 |
| Overs–unders | 20–13 | 14–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 7–1 SJ in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.