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Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+

Away

Senators

18-14-5

5–7

at

Home

Maple Leafs

17-15-5

OTT 53%TOR 47%

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Scotiabank Arena · ESPN+

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.

TOR favored OTT favored12 scoring plays
P1P2P3TOR50%OTT

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Senators
Maple Leafs

Scoring summary

  • P318:44John Tavares Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–7
  • P39:18Jordan Spence Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (20), Stephen Halliday (5)5–6
  • P35:53Matthew Knies Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Matias Maccelli (8), Morgan Rielly (20)4–6
  • P35:07Tim Stützle Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (8)4–5
  • P30:14Drake Batherson Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (18), Brady Tkachuk (11)3–5
  • P28:32Nicholas Robertson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (24), Nicolas Roy (9)2–5
  • P27:28Auston Matthews Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Domi (13), Jake McCabe (13)2–4
  • P23:28Bobby McMann Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (11), Max Domi (12)2–3
  • P20:18Ridly Greig Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (19)2–2
  • P117:50Nick Cousins Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Spence (11), Stephen Halliday (4)1–2
  • P114:42Matthew Knies Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Max Domi (11), Nicholas Robertson (9)0–2
  • P10:40William Nylander Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Auston Matthews (10), Matias Maccelli (7)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P20:18Ridly Greig Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (19)OTT 2 – 2 TOR · OTT 35% → 53% +18
  2. P23:28Bobby McMann Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (11), Max Domi (12)OTT 2 – 3 TOR · TOR 47% → 66% +18
  3. P35:07Tim Stützle Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (8)OTT 4 – 5 TOR · OTT 8% → 24% +17
  4. P35:53Matthew Knies Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Matias Maccelli (8), Morgan Rielly (20)OTT 4 – 6 TOR · TOR 76% → 93% +17
  5. P39:18Jordan Spence Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (20), Stephen Halliday (5)OTT 5 – 6 TOR · OTT 5% → 20% +16

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Senators 53%

Toss-upMiss
OTT 53%TOR 47%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
OTT 53%
ML OTT -125 / TOR +105
Pre-line forecast
OTT 47%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
OTT 44%
Ratings vs. market
−9.1 pts
OTT: Elo 44.1%, market 53.2%
Fair odds
OTT -114
TOR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
OTT 3.3 – 3.2 TOR
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorOTTTORWhy
Team rating15091514Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+1+2OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsTOR +41 EloTOR 55.9%
Market-implied ratingsTOR 51.9%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastTOR 52.7%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastOTT 53.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Ottawa Senators and Toronto Maple Leafs compared, with each team's league rank
OTTStatTOR
7th of 323.3Goals scored3.211th of 32
17th of 323.1Goals allowed3.425th of 32
9th of 32+0.2Margin−0.222nd of 32
5th of 3252.3%Shot share46.5%30th of 32
32nd of 3288.1%Save percentage89.9%14th of 32
13th of 325–5Last 104–619th of 32
12th of 3210–9Road vs home11–1018th of 32
30th of 321493Opponent Elo149132nd of 32
12th of 321509Elo rating151411th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

SenatorsMaple Leafs
145015001550league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonOTTTOR
Puck line16–2013–23
Last 106–43–7
Favorite7–185–17
Underdog9–28–6
Overs–unders21–1521–15
Overs–unders, last 105–53–7

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

OTT 8–5 TOR in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 13.