Pittsburgh Penguins at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Rutger McGroartyGoals1
- Justin BrazeauAssists1
- Bryan RustPoints1
Maple Leafs- William NylanderGoals2
- William NylanderAssists2
- William NylanderPoints4
Scoring summary
- P318:36William Nylander Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (18), Matthew Knies (23)3–6
- P317:57Bobby McMann Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Domi (10)3–5
- P311:35Max Domi Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (17), William Nylander (27)3–4
- P31:00Anthony Mantha Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Parker Wotherspoon (9), Justin Brazeau (7)3–3
- P211:43Rutger McGroarty Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–3
- P27:38Steven Lorentz Goal (4) Backhand, assists: none1–3
- P113:34Matias Maccelli Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (26), Philippe Myers (2)1–2
- P19:51Bryan Rust Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (18), Kris Letang (16)1–1
- P19:07William Nylander Goal (12) Backhand, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:07William Nylander Goal (12) Backhand, assists: nonePIT 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 54% → 69% +15TOR 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P19:51Bryan Rust Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (18), Kris Letang (16)PIT 1 – 1 TOR · PIT 31% → 46% +15PIT 31% → 46%+15 pts
- P113:34Matias Maccelli Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (26), Philippe Myers (2)PIT 1 – 2 TOR · TOR 54% → 69% +16TOR 54% → 69%+16 pts
- P31:00Anthony Mantha Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Parker Wotherspoon (9), Justin Brazeau (7)PIT 3 – 3 TOR · PIT 24% → 48% +24PIT 24% → 48%+24 pts
- P311:35Max Domi Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (17), William Nylander (27)PIT 3 – 4 TOR · TOR 52% → 84% +33TOR 52% → 84%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 54%
- ML PIT +110 / TOR -130
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.9 pts
- TOR: Elo 61.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -119
- PIT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.1 – 3.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +2 | PIT: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +79 Elo | TOR 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 59.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.113th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.424th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.324th of 32 |
| 16th of 3250.2% | Shot share | 46.4%30th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 89.9%16th of 32 |
| 30th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 14th of 328–8 | Road vs home | 10–1018th of 32 |
| 27th of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 149230th of 32 |
| 28th of 321467 | Elo rating | 151013th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–14 | 12–23 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–9 | 4–17 |
| Underdog | 18–5 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 18–17 | 20–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 2–6 TOR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.